Pröhl G, Müller H
GSF-Forschungszentrum für Umwelt und Gesundheit Neuherberg, Institut für Strahlenschutz, Oberschleissheim, Germany.
Radiat Environ Biophys. 1996 Aug;35(3):205-18. doi: 10.1007/s004110050032.
The uncertainty of the potential radiation exposure of the general population has been estimated for a normalized contamination of ground water that is being used as drinking water for humans and animals, for irrigation of food and feed crops, and for fish production in freshwater bodies. The frequency distributions of annual effective dose equivalents were calculated assuming a normalized activity concentration in water of 1 Bq/l for each radionuclide considered. Estimated frequency distributions of the parameters were used as model input. This estimation is based on an exposure scenario which reflects the present radioecological conditions. Another important source for the uncertainty of the potential dose due to radionuclides released to the ground water is the uncertainty of the exposure scenario. Since such a contamination may not occur before some time in the far future, it is impossible to predict the exact boundary conditions. Therefore, scenarios were stimulated with modified consumption habits, more extensive farm management and different climatic conditions. The distributions of the potential doses cover in general about a factor of 10-20. The intake of drinking water, the root uptake and the contamination of fish are most important for the resulting potential radiation exposure. For nearly all radionuclides, the intake of drinking water dominates the potential exposure. In most cases radioactive daughter nuclides are of minor importance. In general, the influence of the exposure scenario on the dose is relatively small.
针对用作人类和动物饮用水、粮食和饲料作物灌溉用水以及淡水水体鱼类养殖用水的地下水归一化污染情况，估算了普通人群潜在辐射暴露的不确定性。假设每种所考虑的放射性核素在水中的活度浓度为1 Bq/l，计算了年有效剂量当量的频率分布。将参数的估计频率分布用作模型输入。该估计基于反映当前放射生态状况的暴露情景。由于放射性核素释放到地下水中导致潜在剂量不确定性的另一个重要来源是暴露情景的不确定性。由于这种污染在遥远的未来某个时间之前可能不会发生，因此无法预测确切的边界条件。因此，通过改变消费习惯、更广泛的农场管理和不同的气候条件来模拟情景。潜在剂量的分布总体上涵盖约10到20倍的范围。饮用水摄入、根部吸收和鱼类污染对产生的潜在辐射暴露最为重要。对于几乎所有放射性核素，饮用水摄入主导潜在暴露。在大多数情况下，放射性子核素的重要性较小。一般来说，暴露情景对剂量的影响相对较小。
