Packham D K, Yan H D, Hewitson T D, Nicholls K M, Fairley K F, Kincaid-Smith P, Becker G J
Department of Nephrology, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Victoria, Australia.
Clin Nephrol. 1996 Oct;46(4):225-9.
Between 1971 and 1991, 845 patients were diagnosed as having IgA glomerulonephritis on renal biopsy performed. These patients were followed for a mean period of 53 months post biopsy (range 0-336 months). By the end of follow up 147 (17%) of patients have developed chronic renal failure (Cr > 0.2 mmol/l) or end-stage renal failure. Presenting creatinine > 0.12 mmol/l, hypertension, nephrotic range, age > 40 years and male gender, all correlated strongly on univariate analysis with the development of chronic renal failure or kidney disease (all p < 0.0001). However, a number of patients developing chronic renal failure or end-stage renal failure already had renal impairment (creatinine > 0.12 mmol/l at presentation). A separate comparison was performed of patients presenting with creatinine < 0.12 mmol/l and either developing chronic failure or end-stage renal failure within 5 years of biopsy (n = 18) and those with creatinine still < 0.12 mmol/l after 5 years follow up (n = 186). Of the 18 patients who deteriorated 6 (35%) were nephrotic at presentation and 9 (56%) had focal hyalinosis and sclerosis on renal biopsy. This compared with 5 (3%) patients with nephrotic range proteinuria and 16 (10%) patients with focal hyalinosis and sclerosis among the 186 patients who did not deteriorate (p < 0.0001). The sensitivity and specificity of the presence of either or both factors in predicting deterioration was calculated at 65% and 87% respectively. Thus in patients with normal renal function at presentation the presence of nephrotic range or focal hyalinosis and sclerosis are strong predictors of adverse clinical outcome.
1971年至1991年间,845例患者经肾活检确诊为IgA肾病。这些患者在活检后平均随访53个月(范围0 - 336个月)。随访结束时,147例(17%)患者出现慢性肾衰竭(肌酐>0.2 mmol/l)或终末期肾衰竭。就诊时肌酐>0.12 mmol/l、高血压、肾病范围蛋白尿、年龄>40岁及男性,在单因素分析中均与慢性肾衰竭或肾病的发生密切相关(均p<0.0001)。然而,一些发生慢性肾衰竭或终末期肾衰竭的患者就诊时已有肾功能损害(肌酐>0.12 mmol/l)。对就诊时肌酐<0.12 mmol/l且在活检后5年内发生慢性肾衰竭或终末期肾衰竭的患者(n = 18)与随访5年后肌酐仍<0.12 mmol/l的患者(n = 186)进行了单独比较。在病情恶化的18例患者中,6例(35%)就诊时为肾病范围蛋白尿,9例(56%)肾活检显示局灶性玻璃样变和硬化。相比之下,在186例病情未恶化的患者中,5例(3%)有肾病范围蛋白尿,16例(10%)有局灶性玻璃样变和硬化(p<0.0001)。这两种因素单独或同时存在预测病情恶化的敏感性和特异性分别计算为65%和87%。因此,对于就诊时肾功能正常的患者,肾病范围蛋白尿或局灶性玻璃样变和硬化的存在是不良临床结局的有力预测指标。