Progression from a smoking lapse to relapse: prediction from abstinence violation effects, nicotine dependence, and lapse characteristics.

Determinants of progression from an initial smoking lapse to relapse, using prospective data from 133 participants were examined. Participants used palm-top computers to record their first lapse, and their reaction to it, within minutes of the event, and were followed for 3 months to assess subsequent smoking. Indicators of the Abstinence Violation Effect--self-efficacy, attributions, and affective reactions to the lapse--generally failed to predict progression to relapse, but participants who felt like giving up after the first lapse progressed more rapidly to a second lapse. Participants who attempted restorative coping were less likely to progress to another lapse on the same day. Those whose lapses were triggered by stress progressed more quickly, whereas those triggered by eating and drinking or accompanied by alcohol consumption progressed more slowly. More nicotine-dependent participants progressed more rapidly toward relapse, but neither the amount smoked in the first lapse nor its subjective reinforcement predicted progression.