Coleman P G, Dye C
Department of Medical Parasitology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK.
Vaccine. 1996 Feb;14(3):185-6. doi: 10.1016/0264-410x(95)00197-9.
WHO recommends that 70% of dogs in a population should be immunized to eliminate or prevent outbreaks of rabies. This critical percentage (pc) has been established empirically from observations on the relationship between vaccination coverage and rabies incidence in dog populations around the world. Here, by contrast, we estimate pc by using epidemic theory, together with data available from four outbreaks in urban and rural areas of the USA, Mexico, Malaysia and Indonesia. From the rate of increase of cases at the beginning of these epidemics, we obtain estimates of the basic case reproduction number of infection, R0, in the range 1.62-2.33, implying that pc lies between 39% and 57%. The errors attached to these estimates of pc suggest that the recommended coverage of 70% would prevent a major outbreak of rabies on no fewer than 96.5% of occasions.
世界卫生组织建议，为消除或预防狂犬病疫情，某一地区70%的犬类应接种疫苗。这一关键比例是根据对全球犬类群体中疫苗接种覆盖率与狂犬病发病率之间关系的观察经验确定的。相比之下，我们在此运用流行病理论，并结合美国、墨西哥、马来西亚和印度尼西亚城乡地区四次疫情的现有数据来估算这一比例。从这些疫情初期病例的增长速率，我们得出感染基本病例繁殖数R0的估算值在1.62至2.33之间，这意味着该关键比例在39%至57%之间。这些关键比例估算值的误差表明，建议的70%的覆盖率在不少于96.5%的情况下可预防狂犬病的大规模爆发。
