Ewald P W
Department of Biology, Amherst College, Amherst, MA 01002-5000, USA.
Emerg Infect Dis. 1996 Oct-Dec;2(4):245-57. doi: 10.3201/eid0204.960401.
Control of emerging infectious diseases will be difficult because of the large number of disease-causing organisms that are emerging or could emerge and the great diversity of geographic areas in which emergence can occur. The modern view of the evolution of pathogen virulence--specifically its focus on the tradeoff between costs and benefits to the pathogen from increased host exploitation--allows control programs to identify and focus on the most dangerous pathogens (those that can be established with high virulence in human populations).
由于正在出现或可能出现的致病生物数量众多，且出现疾病的地理区域极为多样，因此控制新出现的传染病将面临困难。关于病原体毒力进化的现代观点——特别是其关注病原体因增加对宿主的利用而产生的成本与收益之间的权衡——使控制计划能够识别并专注于最危险的病原体（那些能够在人群中以高毒力稳定存在的病原体）。
