Costantino RF, Desharnais RA, Cushing JM, Dennis B
R. F. Costantino, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI 02881, USA. R. A. Desharnais, Department of Biology and Microbiology, California State University, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA. J. M. Cushing, Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA. B. Dennis, Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources and Division of Statistics, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USA.
Science. 1997 Jan 17;275(5298):389-91. doi: 10.1126/science.275.5298.389.
A nonlinear demographic model was used to predict the population dynamics of the flour beetle Tribolium under laboratory conditions and to establish the experimental protocol that would reveal chaotic behavior. With the adult mortality rate experimentally set high, the dynamics of animal abundance changed from equilibrium to quasiperiodic cycles to chaos as adult-stage recruitment rates were experimentally manipulated. These transitions in dynamics corresponded to those predicted by the mathematical model. Phase-space graphs of the data together with the deterministic model attractors provide convincing evidence of transitions to chaos.
一个非线性种群统计学模型被用于预测在实验室条件下赤拟谷盗的种群动态，并建立能够揭示混沌行为的实验方案。随着实验设定的成虫死亡率较高，当实验操控成虫阶段的补充率时，动物数量动态从平衡转变为准周期循环再到混沌。这些动态变化与数学模型预测的一致。数据的相空间图以及确定性模型吸引子为向混沌的转变提供了令人信服的证据。
