Willeberg P, Leontides L, Ewald C, Mortensen S, McInerney J P, Howe K S, Kooij D
Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Acta Vet Scand Suppl. 1996;90:25-51.
In January 1990, a 6-year program was initiated to eliminate endemic Aujeszky's Disease virus (ADV) infection from the pig herds in an area of Northern Germany, bordering Southern Denmark, with intensive pig farming. In the first 3 years of the campaign, an intensive compulsory vaccination program, with glycoprotein I (gI)-deleted vaccines, of all pigs in the area was employed. Beginning in June 1990 and for the first 3 years of the project, approximately 200 herds randomly selected from all herds in the area, were serologically tested each quarter. In each farrow-to-feeder (FAFE), feeder-to-finish (FEFI) and farrow-to-finish (FAFI) herd, 20 female breeding pigs, 20 finishing pigs (> or = 50 kgs liveweight) and 10 female breeding pigs and 10 finishing pigs, respectively, were blood sampled. The sera were tested by the Herd-Check Anti-PRV(S) ELISA test (IDDEX Inc., ME). Sera positive to this test were examined by the HerdCheck Anti-ADV gI-ELISA test (IDDEX Inc., ME). Data on potentially confounding management factors were collected through a pilot-tested questionnaire, administered to farmers by 2 veterinarians who blood sampled the pigs. For fattening herds (FEFI and fattening sections of FAFI herds), the association between the odds of > or = 1 gI+ finishing pigs and the time between initiation of the program in the area and sampling date (a surrogate for the effect of the program) was modelled using ordinary logistic regression. The association between the odds of gI+ females in seropositive (> or = gI+ females) FAFE and FAFI herds and time since initiation of the program was investigated with logistic-binomial regression models. Results of the study show that the longer the period from the beginning of compulsory vaccination to the date the herd was sampled the lower the odds of gI+ fattening herds and gI+ female breeding pigs in herds of the area. The beneficial effect of mass vaccination on the reduction of ADV spread was accounted for by this relationship. For fattening herds this relationship appeared curvilinear, with the reduction in the log-odds being more rapid in the 1st year of the program. This non-linear pattern indicates that for the elimination of the risk of ADV-infection from fattening herds of the area, the mass vaccination program should be complemented with additional measures such as test-and-slaughter of infected breeding pigs. A computerized economical model to estimate the effects of ADV-infection at the herd and area level has been developed. The analytical structure consists of a basic epidemiological model linked to an economic estimation framework. The economic model predictions allow priorities to be given to alternative control strategies. Mass vaccination of all pigs in regions with endemically infected herds followed by test-and-removal of seropositive animals is the most cost-effective way to control the spread of ADV within the swine population. Other possible control strategies such as intensive vaccination or complete test-and-removal all had higher overall costs, either because of the less efficient production, or because of the high costs of straight test-and-removal.
1990年1月,一项为期6年的计划启动,旨在消除德国北部与丹麦南部接壤的集约化养猪地区猪群中的地方性奥耶斯基氏病病毒(ADV)感染。在行动的前3年,对该地区所有猪群实施了一项强化强制疫苗接种计划,使用的是缺失糖蛋白I(gI)的疫苗。从1990年6月开始,在项目的前3年里,每季度从该地区所有猪群中随机抽取约200个猪群进行血清学检测。在每个从产仔到育肥(FAFE)、从育肥到出栏(FEFI)以及从产仔到出栏(FAFI)的猪群中,分别对20头雌性繁殖猪、20头育肥猪(活重≥50千克)以及10头雌性繁殖猪和10头育肥猪进行采血。血清通过群检抗伪狂犬病病毒(S)ELISA检测(IDDEX公司,缅因州)进行检测。对该检测呈阳性的血清再通过群检抗ADV gI - ELISA检测(IDDEX公司,缅因州)进行检查。通过一份经过预测试的问卷收集有关潜在混杂管理因素的数据,该问卷由2名对猪进行采血的兽医发放给养殖户。对于育肥猪群(FEFI以及FAFI猪群中的育肥部分),使用普通逻辑回归模型对≥1头gI +育肥猪的几率与该地区项目启动时间至采样日期之间的时间(作为项目效果的替代指标)之间的关联进行建模。使用逻辑二项回归模型研究血清阳性(≥gI +雌性)的FAFE和FAFI猪群中gI +雌性的几率与项目启动后的时间之间的关联。研究结果表明,从强制疫苗接种开始到猪群采样日期的时间越长,该地区猪群中gI +育肥猪群以及gI +雌性繁殖猪的几率就越低。大规模疫苗接种对减少ADV传播的有益效果可通过这种关系来解释。对于育肥猪群,这种关系呈现出曲线形式,在项目的第1年,对数几率的降低更为迅速。这种非线性模式表明,为了消除该地区育肥猪群中ADV感染的风险,大规模疫苗接种计划应辅以其他措施,如对感染的繁殖猪进行检测和扑杀。已开发出一个计算机化的经济模型,用于估计ADV感染在猪群和地区层面的影响。分析结构由一个与经济估计框架相联系的基本流行病学模型组成。经济模型预测能够为替代控制策略确定优先级。对地方性感染猪群所在地区的所有猪进行大规模疫苗接种,随后对血清阳性动物进行检测和清除,是控制ADV在猪群中传播的最具成本效益的方法。其他可能的控制策略,如强化疫苗接种或完全检测和清除,总体成本都更高,要么是因为生产效率较低,要么是因为直接检测和清除的成本过高。