The role of spatial factors in the success of an Aujeszky's disease eradication programme in a high pig density area (Northeast Spain, 2003-2007).

We tested the role of several spatial variables on the risk of a sow herd being Aujeszky's disease virus (ADV) seropositive in certain areas of North Eastern Spain and during different periods of the eradication programme. Distance to the nearest slaughterhouse, distance to the nearest conventional road and number of ADV serologically positive sows and ADV serologically positive fattening pigs within different distances (1000, 1500 and 2000 m) of each sow herd, were included in a hierarchical Bayesian binomial model. A variable without spatial characteristics, type of herd (farrow to weaning and farrow to finish), was also included. Presence of positive fattening pigs or positive sows up to a distance of 1500 m of a sow herd increased its risk of being seropositive, although this variable had no effect on the risk when located at distances up to 1000 or 2000 m. The number of seropositive sows increased the risk of a sow herd being ADV seropositive only in the first period of study, when the proportion of serologically positive sow herds was nearly 60%. The spatial pattern of the residuals of the hierarchical Bayesian binomial model (observed versus predicted) was very similar to the observed infection in sow herds in all of the eradication periods, showing that spatial factors might not be the main factors related to the eradication of Aujeszky's disease from sow herds. Other herd-specific risk factors might be much more strongly related to the risk of a sow herd being ADV seropositive.