Horiuchi S, Wilmoth J R
Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University, USA.
J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 1997 Jan;52(1):B67-77. doi: 10.1093/gerona/52a.1.b67.
It has been widely supposed that human mortality from all causes increases with age nearly exponentially (at a constant rate) through adult ages except for very old ages, and that this exponential increase also holds fairly well for most major causes of death (CODs). However, the present analysis of death registration data for Japan, 1951-1990, reveals that the rate of age-related relative increase in mortality (the life table aging rate) changes with age significantly and systematically for many CODs. Above age 75, the mortality increase decelerates for most CODs; under age 75, it remains at a relatively stable pace for ischemic heart disease, decelerates for most major cancers, and accelerates for diseases related to a declining ability to maintain homeostasis (pneumonia, bronchitis, influenza, gastroenteritis, and heart failure). These results seem to suggest that significantly different types of senescent processes may underlie atherogenesis, oncogenesis, and immunosenescence.
人们普遍认为，除了极高龄阶段外，成年人因各种原因导致的死亡率随年龄增长几乎呈指数级上升（以恒定速率），并且这种指数级增长对于大多数主要死因（COD）也相当适用。然而，目前对日本1951 - 1990年死亡登记数据的分析表明，许多COD的与年龄相关的死亡率相对增长率（生命表老化率）会随着年龄显著且系统地变化。75岁以上，大多数COD的死亡率增长减速；75岁以下，缺血性心脏病的死亡率保持相对稳定的增长速度，大多数主要癌症的死亡率减速，而与维持内环境稳定能力下降相关的疾病（肺炎、支气管炎、流感、肠胃炎和心力衰竭）的死亡率加速。这些结果似乎表明，动脉粥样硬化、肿瘤发生和免疫衰老可能存在显著不同类型的衰老过程。
