Price B
Price Associates, Inc., Washington, DC 20006, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 1997 Feb 1;145(3):211-8. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009093.
Mesothelioma incidence often is interpreted as an index of past exposure to airborne asbestos. The mesothelioma rate for US males exhibits an increasing trend throughout the 1970s and early 1980s. The trend has been attributed to occupational exposure in the shipbuilding industry during World War II, in manufacturing, and in building construction. Incidence data (1973-1992) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program were used to investigate current trends in age-adjusted and age-specific mesothelioma rates. An age and birth-cohort model was used to project both lifetime probabilities of mesothelioma by cohort and the annual number of cases expected over the next 70 years. The current trend in female rates is flat (age-adjusted rate = 0.30 per 100,000). The estimated lifetime risk for females is 2.5 x 10(-4), independent of birth cohort. The projected average annual number of female cases is 500. For males, the age-adjusted mesothelioma rate is increasing solely due to the age group 75 years and over, albeit at a declining growth rate. Lifetime risk for males peaks at 2 x 10(-3) for the 1925-1929 birth cohort, then decreases to 5 x 10(-4) for the 1955-1959 birth cohort. The pattern of rates reflected in the age and birth-cohort model suggests a peak in the annual number of mesothelioma cases for males at 2,300 before the year 2000. The number of male cases then will drop during the next 50-60 years toward 500. These trends mirror the US trend in raw asbestos consumption and a reduction in workplace airborne asbestos levels.
间皮瘤发病率常被视为过去接触空气中石棉的指标。美国男性间皮瘤发病率在整个20世纪70年代和80年代初呈上升趋势。这一趋势归因于第二次世界大战期间造船业、制造业和建筑行业的职业接触。利用监测、流行病学和最终结果计划（1973 - 1992年）的发病率数据，研究年龄调整和特定年龄间皮瘤发病率的当前趋势。采用年龄和出生队列模型预测各队列间皮瘤的终生概率以及未来70年预期的年病例数。女性发病率的当前趋势平稳（年龄调整发病率 = 每10万人0.30例）。女性的估计终生风险为2.5×10⁻⁴，与出生队列无关。预计女性病例的年均数为500例。对于男性，年龄调整后的间皮瘤发病率仅因75岁及以上年龄组而上升，尽管增长率在下降。男性的终生风险在1925 - 1929年出生队列中达到峰值2×10⁻³，然后在1955 - 1959年出生队列中降至5×10⁻⁴。年龄和出生队列模型中反映的发病率模式表明，男性间皮瘤病例年数在2000年前达到峰值2300例。随后，男性病例数将在接下来的50 - 60年中降至500例左右。这些趋势反映了美国原石棉消费量的趋势以及工作场所空气中石棉水平的下降。
