Price Associates, Inc., White Plains, New York 10601, USA.
Crit Rev Toxicol. 2009;39(7):576-88. doi: 10.1080/10408440903044928.
The time trend of mesothelioma incidence and projections of future cases provide useful information for analyzing proposed public health interventions where asbestos exposure may be an issue, evaluating regulatory proposals, and estimating the remaining potential costs of programs to compensate individuals with asbestos-related diseases. We used the April 2008 release of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, which covers 1973 through 2005, to analyze the time trends in age-adjusted mesothelioma incidence and to estimate an age and birth-cohort model to project the number of future mesothelioma cases. The increase in the number of SEER cancer registries from 13 to 17 in 2000 had little effect on the time pattern of age-adjusted mesothelioma incidence, and the pattern over time of pleural mesothelioma was indistinguishable from the pattern for total mesothelioma defined as sum of pleural and peritoneal cases. Our analysis suggests that the SEER registries viewed as a sample of the U.S. population over-represents high mesothelioma incidence, a fact that we accounted for in our projections. For 2008 we estimate approximately 2,400 cases, with asbestos the likely cause in 58%. We project that asbestos will no longer be a factor in mesothelioma cases after the year 2042. For 2008 through 2042, we estimate slightly more than 68,000 total cases, with asbestos the likely cause in 34%.
间皮瘤发病率的时间趋势和未来病例的预测为分析拟议的公共卫生干预措施（其中石棉暴露可能是一个问题）、评估监管建议以及估计与石棉相关疾病患者赔偿计划的剩余潜在成本提供了有用的信息。我们使用了 2008 年 4 月发布的监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据（涵盖了 1973 年至 2005 年），来分析年龄调整后间皮瘤发病率的时间趋势，并估计年龄和出生队列模型来预测未来间皮瘤病例的数量。2000 年，SEER 癌症登记处从 13 个增加到 17 个，这对年龄调整后间皮瘤发病率的时间模式几乎没有影响，并且随时间推移的胸膜间皮瘤模式与总间皮瘤（定义为胸膜和腹膜病例的总和）模式无法区分。我们的分析表明，SEER 登记处作为美国人口的样本存在高估高间皮瘤发病率的情况，我们在预测中考虑到了这一事实。对于 2008 年，我们估计大约有 2400 例病例，其中 58%可能是石棉引起的。我们预测，到 2042 年之后，石棉将不再是间皮瘤病例的一个因素。对于 2008 年至 2042 年，我们估计总病例数略多于 68000 例，其中 34%可能是石棉引起的。
