Cane MA, Clement AC, Kaplan A, Kushnir Y, Pozdnyakov D, Seager R, Zebiak SE, Murtugudde R
M. A. Cane, A. C. Clement, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, D. Pozdnyakov, R. Seager, S. E. Zebiak, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USA. R. Murtugudde, Universities Space Research Association, Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
Science. 1997 Feb 14;275(5302):957-60. doi: 10.1126/science.275.5302.957.
An analysis of historical sea surface temperatures provides evidence for global warming since 1900, in line with land-based analyses of global temperature trends, and also shows that over the same period, the eastern equatorial Pacific cooled and the zonal sea surface temperature gradient strengthened. Recent theoretical studies have predicted such a pattern as a response of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system to an exogenous heating of the tropical atmosphere. This pattern, however, is not reproduced by the complex ocean-atmosphere circulation models currently used to simulate the climatic response to increased greenhouse gases. Its presence is likely to lessen the mean 20th-century global temperature change in model simulations.
对历史海表温度的分析为自1900年以来的全球变暖提供了证据，这与基于陆地的全球温度趋势分析结果一致，同时也表明在同一时期，赤道东太平洋变冷，纬向海表温度梯度增强。近期的理论研究预测了这样一种模式，即作为海洋-大气耦合系统对热带大气外源加热的一种响应。然而，目前用于模拟气候对温室气体增加响应的复杂海洋-大气环流模型并未再现这种模式。它的存在可能会降低模型模拟中20世纪的平均全球温度变化。
