Delongchamp R R, Mabuchi K, Yoshimoto Y, Preston D L
Department of Statistics, Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima, Japan.
Radiat Res. 1997 Mar;147(3):385-95.
Cancer mortality for the period from October 1950 through May 1992 was analyzed in atomic bomb survivors exposed in utero. Risk estimates for this group were also compared to those for survivors who were less than 6 years old at the time of exposure. The cohorts studied include 807 in utero survivors and 5,545 persons exposed during childhood with all members of both groups having estimated doses of at least 0.01 Sv. The comparison group includes 10,453 persons with little (<0.01 Sv) or no exposure. Analyses were limited mainly to cancer deaths occurring between the ages of 17 and 46. Only 10 cancer deaths were observed among persons exposed in utero. However, there is a significant dose response with an estimate of excess relative risk per sievert (ERR/Sv) of 2.1 (90% confidence interval of 0.2 to 6.0). This estimate does not differ significantly from that for survivors exposed during the first 5 years of life. The cancer deaths among those exposed in utero involved leukemia (2), female-specific organs (3) and digestive organs (5). Nine deaths occurred in females, where the excess risk for all solid cancers has a 90% confidence interval on the ERR/Sv of 1.6 to 17. Significant risks were found for cancers of the digestive system [90% confidence interval (CI) on the ERR/Sv of 0.7 to 20] and for female-specific cancers (90% CI on the ERR/Sv of 0.7 to 42). These risks do not differ significantly from those seen in females exposed as children. There were no deaths from solid cancer in men exposed in utero. The ERR/Sv has an upper 95% confidence bound of 2.5 which does not differ from that for exposed children, where the upper 95% confidence bound is 1.5. The sexes differ even when female-specific cancers are excluded from the comparison. Although there were only two leukemia deaths among those exposed in utero, the leukemia death rate for this group is higher than that in the comparison group (P = 0.054) with an exposure effect that is about half the magnitude and not significantly different from that seen after childhood exposure (P = 0.103). However, there is no evidence of a dose response among those exposed in utero because no high-dose leukemia deaths were observed, a result that differs considerably from that for those exposed as children. There is a need for caution in the interpretation of these data. First, the number of cancer deaths is small; second, there is unexplained significant difference in the mortality from solid cancer between the sexes; and third, the excess of leukemia in those exposed in utero is not reflected in an increasing dose response.
对在子宫内受到辐射的原子弹幸存者在1950年10月至1992年5月期间的癌症死亡率进行了分析。还将该组的风险估计与暴露时年龄小于6岁的幸存者的风险估计进行了比较。所研究的队列包括807名子宫内幸存者和5545名儿童期受照者,两组所有成员的估计剂量均至少为0.01 Sv。对照组包括10453名几乎没有(<0.01 Sv)或未受照的人。分析主要限于17至46岁之间发生的癌症死亡。在子宫内受照者中仅观察到10例癌症死亡。然而,存在显著的剂量反应,每西弗特超额相对风险(ERR/Sv)估计为2.1(90%置信区间为0.2至6.0)。该估计与生命最初5年受照的幸存者的估计没有显著差异。子宫内受照者中的癌症死亡涉及白血病(2例)、女性特定器官(3例)和消化器官(5例)。9例死亡发生在女性中,所有实体癌的超额风险在ERR/Sv上的90%置信区间为1.6至17。消化系统癌症[ERR/Sv的90%置信区间(CI)为0.7至20]和女性特定癌症(ERR/Sv的90% CI为0.7至42)存在显著风险。这些风险与儿童期受照的女性中观察到的风险没有显著差异。子宫内受照的男性中没有实体癌死亡。ERR/Sv的95%置信上限为2.5,与受照儿童的95%置信上限1.5没有差异。即使在比较中排除女性特定癌症,两性之间也存在差异。尽管子宫内受照者中只有2例白血病死亡,但该组的白血病死亡率高于对照组(P = 0.054),暴露效应约为儿童期受照后观察到的一半,且与儿童期受照后观察到的效应没有显著差异(P = 0.103)。然而,子宫内受照者中没有剂量反应的证据,因为没有观察到高剂量白血病死亡,这一结果与儿童期受照者的结果有很大不同。在解释这些数据时需要谨慎。首先,癌症死亡人数较少;其次,两性之间实体癌死亡率存在无法解释的显著差异;第三,子宫内受照者中白血病的超额情况未反映在剂量反应增加中。