Mackeprang B, Brauer E
Scand J Soc Med. 1977;5(2):61-5. doi: 10.1177/140349487700500202.
The prospects of survival and changes in function (need for care) are evaluated after a two-year period for the 1486 persons resident in the geriatric institution "De Gamles By", Copenhagen, on January 15, 1967. It is shown that the logarithm of the survival percentages is approximately a linear function of the time. The prospect of survival is slightly better for the females than for the males because of a significantly higher mortality among the dependent men than among the dependent women. There is no difference as regards sex in the mortality rate for the independent patients (25%). The prospect of survival is poorest in the heavily dependent patients, regardless of sex. Only 5% of the patients were discharged to their homes or transferred to a hospital or some other institution. There was an improvement in the care status, regardless of sex, in 4%, the condition was unchanged in 61%, and there was deterioration in 35% of the 870 patients who survived the two-year period. On the basis of the prospects of surviving whilst waiting for admittance, the saving in institutional places is discussed. The increased need for more accomodation in geriatric institutions is emphasized in order to reduce the unfortunate consequences of the time spent in waiting for admission.
1967年1月15日，对哥本哈根“老城区”老年护理机构的1486名住院患者进行了为期两年的随访，评估其生存前景和功能变化（护理需求）。结果表明，生存百分比的对数近似为时间的线性函数。由于依赖男性的死亡率显著高于依赖女性，女性的生存前景略优于男性。独立患者（25%）的死亡率在性别上没有差异。无论性别，重度依赖患者的生存前景最差。只有5%的患者出院回家或转至医院或其他机构。在870名存活两年的患者中，4%的患者护理状况有所改善，61%的患者状况未变，35%的患者状况恶化，且与性别无关。基于等待入院期间的生存前景，讨论了机构床位的节省问题。强调了老年护理机构对更多床位的需求增加，以减少等待入院期间的不良后果。
