Brauer E, Mackeprang B, Bentzon M W
Scand J Soc Med. 1978;6(1):17-24. doi: 10.1177/140349487800600104.
With the aim of demonstrating prognostics as regards death in a geriatric population, the mortality among 1 486 patients (516 men and 970 women) in De Gamles By, Copenhagen, was observed over a 2-year period. The mortality curves for the groups examined were found to be rectilinear in logarithmic form and could therefore be described with sufficient certainty by one value, viz. the probability of death in any one year. The probability of death was just over 20% and was the same for both sexes. Of the parameters examined, particularly high mortality was found where there was urinary incontinence, severe mental abnormality, a great need for nursing, and poor physical mobility (especially inability to walk). On the other hand, there was no particular relationship with age. Where the degree of the handicapping factors was severe, there was generally greater mortality among the men than among the women, but this was not so in the less severe cases. The length of stay in the institution had no effect on the mortality. The results of the present study are in good agreement with previous findings reported from New York (7).
为了阐明老年人群的死亡预后情况，在哥本哈根的De Gamles By对1486例患者（516名男性和970名女性）进行了为期2年的死亡率观察。所研究组的死亡率曲线在对数形式下呈直线，因此可用一个值充分确定地描述，即任意一年的死亡概率。死亡概率略高于20%，且男女相同。在所研究的参数中，发现存在尿失禁、严重精神异常、护理需求大以及身体活动能力差（尤其是无法行走）的情况时，死亡率特别高。另一方面，与年龄没有特定关系。当致残因素程度严重时，男性的死亡率通常高于女性，但在不太严重的情况下并非如此。在机构中的停留时间对死亡率没有影响。本研究结果与纽约先前报道的结果（7）高度一致。
