Mackeprang B, Bentzon M W
Scand J Soc Med. 1978;6(1):25-9. doi: 10.1177/140349487800600105.
On the basis of a study from De Gamles By, Copenhagen, concerning the mortality and changes in the patients' need for nursing care over a 2-year period, calculation is made of the time-related changes in the care status, using a special model for homes for elderly persons. This model is based on a policy that only independent persons are received into such homes and that they remain there until they die. It is found that the need for care becomes stabilized after a period of 5-6 years and remains at a level corresponding to about 45% independent, 36% slightly dependent, and 17% heavily dependent patients (the "minimum need for care"). Using the model, a few examples are given to illustrate the changes which would arise in the need for care in De Gamles By if, on the basis of the primary care status on January 15, 1969, (A) only independent patients were admitted, and (B) the current admittance policy was continued.
基于哥本哈根德加姆勒斯比的一项研究，该研究涉及患者在两年期间的死亡率及护理需求变化，利用一种针对老年人之家的特殊模型，计算了护理状况随时间的变化。此模型基于一项政策，即只有独立生活的人才能入住此类机构，且他们会一直住在那里直至去世。研究发现，护理需求在5至6年后趋于稳定，维持在约45%为独立患者、36%为轻度依赖患者、17%为重度依赖患者的水平（“最低护理需求”）。运用该模型，给出了一些示例，以说明若基于1969年1月15日的初始护理状况，在德加姆勒斯比会出现的护理需求变化情况：(A) 仅接纳独立患者；(B) 延续当前的接纳政策。
