Crimmins E M, Saito Y, Reynolds S L
Andrus Gerontology Center, University of Southern California, USA.
J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 1997 Mar;52(2):S59-71. doi: 10.1093/geronb/52b.2.s59.
The Longitudinal Study on Aging (LSOA) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) are used to examine change in the prevalence of disability from 1982 through 1993 for persons 70 years of age and over. Changes in the likelihood of becoming disabled and the likelihood of recovering from disability also are investigated with the LSOA. There is some evidence for improving disability status among the old. The prevalence of disability is somewhat lower in more recent years in the NHIS; also, the incidence of disability is lower, and the rate of recovery higher during 1988-90 than in the 1984-86 interval. On the other hand, the prevalence of disability increases at some dates after 1984 in the LSOA sample. In both datasets, there is fluctuation rather than a clear trend in the prevalence of disability. Continued steady improvement in rates of onset and recovery and a consistent trend toward improving prevalence is needed before concluding that we are witnessing the beginning of an ongoing trend toward improving health among the older population.
纵向老龄化研究（LSOA）和国民健康访谈调查（NHIS）被用于研究1982年至1993年70岁及以上人群残疾患病率的变化。纵向老龄化研究还对致残可能性和从残疾中恢复的可能性的变化进行了调查。有证据表明老年人的残疾状况有所改善。国民健康访谈调查显示，近年来残疾患病率有所降低；此外，1988 - 1990年期间的残疾发生率低于1984 - 1986年期间，恢复率则更高。另一方面，纵向老龄化研究样本中，1984年后某些时间点的残疾患病率有所上升。在这两个数据集中，残疾患病率呈现出波动而非明显的趋势。在得出我们正在见证老年人群健康状况持续改善趋势的开始这一结论之前，需要发病率和恢复率持续稳步提高，以及患病率持续改善的一致趋势。
