Schuckit M A, Smith T L
Department of Psychiatry (116A), Veterans Affairs Medical Center, La Jolla, San Diego, California, USA.
J Stud Alcohol. 1997 Mar;58(2):141-5. doi: 10.15288/jsa.1997.58.141.
A low level of response (LR) to alcohol has been shown to predict a high future risk for alcoholism. Studies to date have incorporated both alcoholism family history positive (FHP) and negative (FHN) subjects, but no prospective investigation has evaluated the predictive power of LR among the higher risk FHP individuals alone. If LR can be adequately evaluated without considering FHN controls, future studies of this high risk group can be done more efficiently.
As part of a larger study, at an average of over 8 years after original testing, alcoholic outcomes were evaluated with personal interviews for 133 white sons of alcoholic fathers. The development of alcoholism for men whose LR scores at about age 20 fell into the lower third of intensity was compared to the development of alcoholism for men whose LR scores fell above the median.
The high and low extremes on LR resulted in an 85.0% sensitivity and 58.9% specificity regarding the prediction of future alcoholism in sons of alcoholics. These results remained robust even after controlling for the quantity and frequency of alcohol intake at the time of original testing.
The data indicate that future research on the relationship between LR and the risk for alcoholism in FHPs can be carried out with a single intoxicating dose of alcohol and without FHN controls.
低水平酒精反应（LR）已被证明可预测未来酗酒的高风险。迄今为止的研究纳入了酗酒家族史阳性（FHP）和阴性（FHN）的受试者，但尚无前瞻性研究单独评估LR在高风险FHP个体中的预测能力。如果不考虑FHN对照就能充分评估LR，那么对这个高风险群体的未来研究可以更高效地进行。
作为一项更大规模研究的一部分，在最初测试平均8年多后，通过个人访谈对133名酗酒父亲的白人儿子的酗酒结局进行了评估。将20岁左右LR得分处于强度较低三分之一的男性的酗酒发展情况与LR得分高于中位数的男性的酗酒发展情况进行了比较。
LR的高低极端情况对预测酗酒者儿子未来酗酒的敏感性为85.0%，特异性为58.9%。即使在控制了最初测试时酒精摄入量的数量和频率后，这些结果仍然很可靠。
数据表明，未来关于FHP中LR与酗酒风险之间关系的研究可以通过单次醉酒剂量的酒精进行，且无需FHN对照。
