Rosner B, Hennekens C H, Kass E H, Miall W E
Am J Epidemiol. 1977 Oct;106(4):306-13. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a112466.
To evaluate the predictive value of blood pressures for future levels, longitudinal measurements were analyzed among Welsh subjects from age 5 to 74 at entry. The measurements were taken on 863 individuals from the Vale of Glamorgan in 1956, 1960, 1964, and 1971 and on 734 individuals from the Rhondda Fach in 1954, 1958, 1964, and 1971. The tracking correlation, defined as the correlation between blood pressure readings on the same person taken at two different times, is used as a descriptive measure of the magnitude of the association. The tracking correlations range from 0.25 to 0.6-0.7 with most of the increases occurring before age 20. The tracking correlation depends on initial age, sex, and time interval between measurements. The age-specific tracking correlations decrease as time interval between measurements increases. For a given time interval, the age-specific correlations are slightly higher for females than for males. These findings are very similar for each of the two regions studied.
为评估血压对未来水平的预测价值，对威尔士5岁至74岁的受试者入组时的纵向测量数据进行了分析。这些测量数据来自1956年、1960年、1964年和1971年格拉摩根谷的863名个体，以及1954年、1958年、1964年和1971年朗达法赫的734名个体。追踪相关性定义为同一人在两个不同时间的血压读数之间的相关性，用作关联程度的描述性指标。追踪相关性范围为0.25至0.6 - 0.7，大部分增长发生在20岁之前。追踪相关性取决于初始年龄、性别和测量之间的时间间隔。随着测量之间时间间隔的增加，特定年龄的追踪相关性降低。对于给定的时间间隔，女性的特定年龄相关性略高于男性。在研究的两个区域中，这些发现非常相似。
