Hristova L, Dimova I, Iltcheva M
National Oncological Centre, Sofia, Bulgaria.
Int J Epidemiol. 1997 Jun;26(3):469-75. doi: 10.1093/ije/26.3.469.
Incidence predictions are applicable when planning preventive or screening health care programmes, diagnostic, treatment and rehabilitation facilities. The aim of this study was to predict future (1993-2017) incidence rates of the most common sites of cancer in Bulgaria: breast, cervix and corpus uteri in females, and lung, prostate and stomach in males.
Observed numbers of incident cases in the period 1968-1992 and observed (predicted) population size were employed. Age-cohort and age-cohort-period log-linear models were fitted to the observed data, assuming no change in the observed trends.
The incidence rates for all the studied primary sites, except stomach cancer, were predicted to increase. The observed rates in the period 1988-1992 and the predicted rates in the period 2013-2017 per 100000 were in females: breast-from 38.8 to 64.6, cervix-from 12.8 to 19.3, corpus uteri-from 12.4 to 26.5. In males similar rates were: lung-from 41.0 to 73.8, prostate-from 10.1 to 15.0 and stomach-from 17.5 to 10.2. Due to the increasing incidence rates and ageing of the population the predicted number of new cases in the studied sites of cancer in the period 2013-2017 is 62% higher than that observed in the period 1988-1992.
发病率预测适用于规划预防性或筛查性医疗保健项目、诊断、治疗和康复设施。本研究的目的是预测保加利亚未来（1993 - 2017年）最常见癌症部位的发病率：女性的乳腺癌、宫颈癌和子宫体癌，以及男性的肺癌、前列腺癌和胃癌。
采用1968 - 1992年期间观察到的发病病例数和观察到的（预测的）人口规模。假设观察到的趋势没有变化，将年龄队列和年龄队列 - 时期对数线性模型拟合到观察数据中。
预计除胃癌外，所有研究的原发部位的发病率都会上升。1988 - 1992年期间每10万人的观察发病率和2013 - 2017年期间的预测发病率，女性分别为：乳腺癌从38.8上升到64.6，宫颈癌从12.8上升到19.3，子宫体癌从12.4上升到26.5。男性的类似发病率为：肺癌从41.0上升到73.8，前列腺癌从10.1上升到15.0，胃癌从17.5下降到10.2。由于发病率上升和人口老龄化，预计2013 - 2017年研究的癌症部位的新发病例数比1988 - 1992年观察到的病例数高出62%。
