Predictive model of the effect of CO2, pH, temperature and NaCl on the growth of Listeria monocytogenes.

The growth responses of L. monocytogenes as affected by CO2 concentration (0-100% v/v, balance nitrogen), NaCl concentration (0.5-8.0% w/v), pH (4.5-7.0) and temperature (4-20 degrees C) were studied in laboratory medium. Growth curves were fitted using the model of Baranyi and Roberts, and specific growth rates derived from the curve fit were modelled. Predictions for specific growth rate, doubling time and time to a 1000-fold increase could be made for any combination of conditions within the matrix. Predictions of growth from the model were compared with published data and this showed the model to be suitable for predicting growth of L. monocytogenes in a range of foods packaged under a modified atmosphere.