Kohler H P
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
Demography. 1997 Aug;34(3):369-83.
A puzzling observation in the diffusion of modern fertility control is the persistent diversity in contraceptive practices across communities or social strata. I propose a model of "learning in social networks" to explain this diversity with the random dynamics of word-of-mouth communication. Women are uncertain about the merits of modern contraception and estimate the different qualities of available method based on imprecise information from network partners. Their contraceptive choices are determined by this estimate and by private knowledge about one's personal characteristics. This process of social learning leads to path-dependent adoption of fertility control within, and diversity in contraceptive practices across villages or social strata.
现代生育控制传播过程中一个令人费解的现象是，不同社区或社会阶层在避孕方式上持续存在差异。我提出了一个“社交网络学习”模型，用口碑传播的随机动态来解释这种差异。女性对现代避孕方法的优点并不确定，她们根据从网络伙伴那里获得的不准确信息来评估现有方法的不同质量。她们的避孕选择由这种评估以及关于个人特征的私人知识决定。这种社会学习过程导致了村庄内部或社会阶层内部生育控制的路径依赖式采用，以及不同村庄或社会阶层在避孕方式上的差异。
