非相干判断得出的相干概率。
Coherent probability from incoherent judgment.
作者信息
Osherson D, Lane D, Hartley P, Batsell R R
机构信息
Department of Psychology, Rice University, Mailstop 25, P.O. Box 1892, Houston, Texas 77251-1892, USA.
出版信息
J Exp Psychol Appl. 2001 Mar;7(1):3-12.
People often have knowledge about the chances of events but are unable to express their knowledge in the form of coherent probabilities. This study proposed to correct incoherent judgment via an optimization procedure that seeks the (coherent) probability distribution nearest to a judge's estimates of chance. This method was applied to the chances of simple and complex meteorological events, as estimated by college undergraduates. No judge responded coherently, but the optimization method found close (coherent) approximations to their estimates. Moreover, the approximations were reliably more accurate than the original estimates, as measured by the quadratic scoring rule. Methods for correcting incoherence facilitate the analysis of expected utility and allow human judgment to be more easily exploited in the construction of expert systems.
人们常常了解事件发生的可能性，但却无法以连贯的概率形式来表达自己的认知。本研究提出通过一种优化程序来纠正不连贯的判断，该程序旨在寻找最接近判断者概率估计的（连贯）概率分布。此方法应用于大学生对简单和复杂气象事件可能性的估计。没有一位判断者的回答是连贯的，但优化方法找到了与其估计值相近的（连贯）近似值。此外，根据二次评分规则衡量，这些近似值比原始估计值可靠地更准确。纠正不连贯性的方法有助于对预期效用进行分析，并使人类判断在专家系统构建中更容易得到利用。
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