Wild C
Institut für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung, Osterr, Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien.
Gesundheitswesen. 1997 Jul;59(7):467-72.
In recent years studies forecasting the future such as Delphi expert surveys were carried out in various Western countries to make predictions on future developments in medicine and in the health care system. The answers draw a homogeneous picture: Cancer and dementia research as well as the development of materials for implantation and artificial organs are-in context of the demographic changes-of enormous relevance, whereas basic research receives less attention. Due to various technological developments in telecommunication and in diagnostics (sensors), sociomedical care at home is supported and will become more frequent.
近年来，诸如德尔菲专家调查等预测未来的研究在各个西方国家开展，以对医学和医疗保健系统的未来发展进行预测。调查结果呈现出一幅一致的图景：在人口结构变化的背景下，癌症和痴呆症研究以及植入材料和人造器官的开发具有极其重要的意义，而基础研究则较少受到关注。由于电信和诊断（传感器）方面的各种技术发展，家庭社会医疗护理得到了支持，并且将会更加频繁。
