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美国合法出生中的数量及时间记录失误:1968年、1969年和1972年

Number and timing failures among legitimate births in the United States: 1968, 1969 and 1972.

作者信息

Weller R H

出版信息

Fam Plann Perspect. 1976 May-Jun;8(3):111-6.

PMID:939284
Abstract

More than one in 10 legitimate births that occurred in the United States during 1968, 1969, and 1972 were not wanted at all, and more than one-quarter of the births were timing failures. A substantial reduction in unwanted childbearing took place between 1968 and 1972. The proportion of legitimate births reported by their mothers to be unwanted ever declined from 13 percent in 1968 to eight percent in 1972. If, as reported in a number of cross-sectional surveys taken during this approximate period, there was a sharp reduction in wanted family size reported by married women, then these women would have remained at risk of having an unwanted birth for a longer period than when their wanted family size had been higher. Thus, these estimates of a decline in unwanted childbearing may be understated (although there was the countervailing trend of later age at marriage during these years). The decline in unwanted childbearing between 1968 and 1972 is only partially attributable to the shift toward lower birth orders that occurred. Declines in unwanted births occurred for almost all birth orders. There was no significant reduction in mistimed births. Because the decline in unwanted fertility during the study period was much greater for nonwhites than whites, the traditional racial differential in unwanted childbearing narrowed considerably between 1968 and 1972. In 1968, 12 percent of the white legitimate births were classified as not wanted, compared to 21 percent of the legitimate births to nonwhites. However, between 1968 and 1972, nonwhites experienced extremely sharp declines in unwanted childbearing. Thus, in 1972 only 9.5 percent of the legitimate births to nonwhites were reported as unwanted, compared to 8.1 percent of the white births. Mothers of higher parity were much more likely to report a birth as unwanted than those of lower parity. Mothers who had completed more schooling were less likely than poorly educated mothers to report births as unwanted. Income level seems unrelated to whether the birth is unwanted, but is inversely related to whether it is a timing failure. Births that resulted from premarital conceptions tended to be reported as timing failures. Viewed from the cross-sectional perspective of period rates of population change, the elimination of unwanted legitimate childbearing would have had a substantial effect on population growth in each of the study years even without decreasing marital mistimed births or illegitimate fertility. The data also suggest that eliminating unwanted marital childbearing could significantly reduce completed family size. However, this conclusion must be viewed with great caution, since we do not know the future variations in timing and spacing of births, and the extent to which the childbearing experience of the sampled mothers is representative of their birth cohorts.

摘要

1968年、1969年和1972年在美国发生的合法出生中,超过十分之一是完全不想要的,并且超过四分之一的出生是生育时机不当。1968年至1972年间,意外生育大幅减少。母亲报告为意外生育的合法出生比例从1968年的13%降至1972年的8%。如果在这个大致时期进行的一些横断面调查中所报告的那样,已婚妇女想要的家庭规模急剧减少,那么这些妇女面临意外生育的风险期会比她们想要的家庭规模更大时更长。因此,这些意外生育减少的估计可能被低估了(尽管这些年存在结婚年龄推迟的抵消趋势)。1968年至1972年间意外生育的减少只是部分归因于向较低生育顺序的转变。几乎所有生育顺序的意外出生都有所下降。生育时机不当的情况没有显著减少。由于在研究期间非白人意外生育的下降幅度比白人大多了,1968年至1972年间,传统的意外生育种族差异大幅缩小。1968年,12%的白人合法出生被归类为不想要的,相比之下,非白人合法出生的这一比例为21%。然而,在1968年至1972年间,非白人的意外生育急剧下降。因此,1972年,只有9.5%的非白人合法出生被报告为不想要的,而白人出生的这一比例为8.1%。多胎母亲比低胎次母亲更有可能报告某一出生是不想要的。完成更多学业的母亲比受教育程度低的母亲报告某一出生是不想要孩子的可能性更小。收入水平似乎与某一出生是否是不想要的无关,但与它是否是生育时机不当呈负相关。婚前怀孕导致的出生往往被报告为生育时机不当。从人口变化时期率的横断面角度来看,即使不减少婚姻生育时机不当或非婚生育,消除意外合法生育在每个研究年份都会对人口增长产生重大影响。数据还表明,消除意外的婚内生育可以显著减少家庭的最终规模。然而,必须非常谨慎地看待这一结论,因为我们不知道未来生育时间和间隔的变化情况,以及抽样母亲的生育经历在多大程度上代表了她们的出生队列。

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