Saltzman B E
Department of Environmental Health, University of Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.
J Air Waste Manag Assoc. 1997 Nov;47(11):1152-60. doi: 10.1080/10473289.1997.10464064.
A mathematical model is proposed for assessing health risk rates of fluctuating concentrations. Each time-averaged concentration may be regarded as a dose that, when applied to the dose-response curve, produces a risk of an adverse effect. A theoretical derivation shows that the dose-response pattern is a cumulative lognormal curve because of the diversity of the individuals in the exposed population. Similarly, the concentration pattern is a log-normal distribution because of the diversity of emission sources and dispersive processes. The health risk is produced by the overlapping of the right tail of the concentration distribution and the left tail of the dose-response curve. The evaluation of the joint probability in this region has been performed by numerical integration by computer in terms of two generalized parameters. One represents the geometric standard deviation of the concentration distribution relative to that of the dose-response curve, and the other represents the distance between the geometric mean concentration and the concentration producing an adverse response in 50% of the exposed population. These results are presented graphically and in tabular form. If the two parameters of the dose-response curve are known, the health risk of the concentration pattern may be calculated conveniently for any geometric mean and geometric standard deviation values.
提出了一种用于评估波动浓度健康风险率的数学模型。每次平均浓度可被视为一种剂量，当应用于剂量反应曲线时，会产生不良反应的风险。理论推导表明，由于暴露人群中个体的多样性，剂量反应模式是一条累积对数正态曲线。同样，由于排放源和扩散过程的多样性，浓度模式是对数正态分布。健康风险是由浓度分布的右尾与剂量反应曲线的左尾重叠产生的。该区域联合概率的评估已通过计算机根据两个广义参数进行数值积分来完成。一个表示浓度分布相对于剂量反应曲线的几何标准差，另一个表示几何平均浓度与在50%的暴露人群中产生不良反应的浓度之间的距离。这些结果以图形和表格形式呈现。如果已知剂量反应曲线的两个参数，则可以方便地针对任何几何平均值和几何标准差计算浓度模式的健康风险。
