Age-period-cohort effects on ischaemic heart disease mortality in Sweden from 1969 to 1993, and forecasts up to 2003.

AIMS

Mortality from ischaemic heart disease has been decreasing in most industrialized countries since the 1960s. The aim of this study was to analyse ischaemic heart disease mortality during 1969-1993 in Sweden, and to predict mortality trends until 2003.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Age-period cohort models were used to analyse ischaemic heart disease mortality in Sweden between 1969 and 1993, and to predict age-specific death rates and total number of deaths for the periods 1994-1998 and 1999-2003. Mortality rates in the age group 25-89 years decreased from 719 to 487 per 100,000 for men, and from 402 to 215 per 100,000 for women over the study period (average annual decrease of 1.5% for men and 2.2% for women). The decline started earlier for women than for men. The ratio of age-adjusted mortality between men and women increased steadily over the study period. Predictions based on the full age-period cohort model for the period 1999-2003 gave mortality rates of 346 and 155 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. Despite the ageing of the population, the total numbers of ischaemic heart disease deaths in Sweden are predicted to decline by approximately 25% in both men and women from 1989-93 to 1999-2003.

CONCLUSION

A major decline in ischaemic heart disease mortality has been observed in the last 15 years in Sweden. Both factors, cohort and calendar period, contain information which helps explain the decline in ischaemic heart disease mortality trends in Sweden. Predictions indicate that the decline of both age-specific and total mortality is to continue.