[Assessment of long-term needs and expenditures development for rehabilitation services of the BfA with reference to the growth and occupational rehabilitation regulation (WFG)].

Based on a Prognos Model projection (1998 to 2040), the number of medical and occupational rehabilitation service treatments required will increase by about 70,000 between 1998 and 2015, reaching 500,000. Thereafter, the situation improves and the number drops to between 370,000 and 430,000. The WFG law provides a 2.7 billion DM budget for the entire time period which results in a growing deficit, reaching 1.7 billion DM by 2015, and enabling the provision of only 50% of the treatments required in the western states, if it is assumed that a reduction of treatment in the eastern states is precluded. This service deficit makes an increase in early retirements probable, thereby, generating costs on balance which exceed any potential savings in the areas of rehabilitation. It is, therefore, necessary to adapt the WFG law to the demands of real needs so that the BfA may continue to fulfill its legal obligation, "rehabilitation before retirement" to the accustomed and necessary extent.