Spyra K, Müller-Fahrnow W, Hansmeier T, Klosterhuis H
Bundesversicherungsanstalt für Angestellte Abteilung Rehabilitation, Berlin.
Z Gerontol Geriatr. 1997 Dec;30(6):443-9.
Based on a Prognos Model projection (1998 to 2040), the number of medical and occupational rehabilitation service treatments required will increase by about 70,000 between 1998 and 2015, reaching 500,000. Thereafter, the situation improves and the number drops to between 370,000 and 430,000. The WFG law provides a 2.7 billion DM budget for the entire time period which results in a growing deficit, reaching 1.7 billion DM by 2015, and enabling the provision of only 50% of the treatments required in the western states, if it is assumed that a reduction of treatment in the eastern states is precluded. This service deficit makes an increase in early retirements probable, thereby, generating costs on balance which exceed any potential savings in the areas of rehabilitation. It is, therefore, necessary to adapt the WFG law to the demands of real needs so that the BfA may continue to fulfill its legal obligation, "rehabilitation before retirement" to the accustomed and necessary extent.
根据一项预测模型（1998年至2040年）的推算，1998年至2015年间所需的医疗和职业康复服务治疗次数将增加约7万次，达到50万次。此后，情况有所改善，治疗次数降至37万至43万次之间。《WFG法》为整个时间段提供了27亿德国马克的预算，这导致赤字不断增加，到2015年达到17亿德国马克。如果假定东部各州的治疗量不能减少，那么这笔预算仅能提供西部各州所需治疗量的50%。这种服务缺口可能导致提前退休人数增加，从而在总体上产生超出康复领域任何潜在节省的成本。因此，有必要使《WFG法》适应实际需求，以便联邦劳动促进局能够继续在惯常和必要的程度上履行其“退休前康复”的法律义务。
