Kaufman J S, Long A E, Liao Y, Cooper R S, McGee D L
Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, Loyola University Stritch School of Medicine, Maywood, IL 60153, USA.
Epidemiology. 1998 Mar;9(2):147-55.
Differential mortality exists in the United States both between racial/ethnic groups and along gradients of socioeconomic status. The specification of statistical models for processes underlying these observed disparities has been hindered by the fact that social and economic quantities are distributed in a highly nonrandom manner throughout the population. We sought to provide a substantive foundation for model development by representing the shape of the income-mortality relation by racial/ethnic group. We used data on black and white men and women from the longitudinal component of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), 1986-1990, which provided 1,191,824 person-years of follow-up and 12,165 mortal events. To account for family size when considering income, we used the ratio of annual family income to the federal poverty line for a family of similar composition. To avoid unnecessary categorizations and prior assumptions about model form, we employed kernel smoothing techniques and calculated the continuous mortality surface across dimensions of adjusted income and age for each of the gender and racial/ethnic groups. Representing regions of equal mortality density with contour plots, we observed interactions that need to be accommodated by any subsequent statistical models. We propose two general theories that provide a foundation for more elaborate and testable hypotheses in the future.
在美国，不同种族/族裔群体之间以及社会经济地位梯度上都存在着死亡率差异。社会和经济因素在整个人口中以高度非随机的方式分布，这一事实阻碍了对这些观察到的差异背后过程的统计模型的设定。我们试图通过按种族/族裔群体描绘收入与死亡率关系的形态，为模型开发提供实质性基础。我们使用了1986 - 1990年国家健康访谈调查（NHIS）纵向部分中黑人和白人男性及女性的数据，该数据提供了1,191,824人年的随访以及12,165例死亡事件。在考虑收入时，为了考虑家庭规模，我们使用了年家庭收入与类似构成家庭的联邦贫困线的比率。为避免不必要的分类和对模型形式的先验假设，我们采用核平滑技术，并针对每个性别和种族/族裔群体计算了经调整的收入和年龄维度上的连续死亡率曲面。用等高线图表示死亡率密度相等的区域，我们观察到了后续任何统计模型都需要考虑的相互作用。我们提出了两个一般性理论，为未来更精细且可检验的假设奠定了基础。
