Kramer M S, Lane D A
Department of Pediatrics, McGill University Faculty of Medicine, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
J Clin Epidemiol. 1998 Apr;51(4):361-4. doi: 10.1016/s0895-4356(97)00289-8.
In the late 1960s, an epidemic of primary pulmonary hypertension (PPH) occurred in Europe shortly after the introduction of aminorex fumarate, a potent anorexigen. A recently published case-control study from Europe reported that use of other anorexigens (the most prevalent of which was dexfenfluramine) was also associated with an increased risk of PPH. This led to warnings of a repeat epidemic, especially after the introduction of dexfenfluramine on the North American market.
To compare the epidemiologic associations of PPH with aminorex and dexfenfluramine, both with respect to strength of association (estimate of relative risk) and public health impact (etiologic fraction) and thus to assess the potential for a new epidemic of PPH.
We constructed a "synthetic" case-control study for aminorex based on reported case series from Berne and Basel, Switzerland, and a random population sample from Hanover, Germany, and compared the results with those recently reported for dexfenfluramine. Control rates of exposure were used to estimate population exposure prevalences and, hence, etiologic fractions.
The estimated odds ratio (and 95% confidence interval) for the association between PPH and any exposure to aminorex was 97.8 (78.9-121.3), with a corresponding etiologic fraction of 77%. The corresponding figures for dexfenfluramine were 3.7 (1.9-7.2) and 17%, respectively.
The strong association between aminorex and PPH probably led to a 5-fold increase in PPH incidence, and thus a very noticeable epidemic. The association with dexfenfluramine would result in an increase in incidence of only 20%. Based on the available evidence, a repeat PPH epidemic seems unlikely.
