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年轻驾驶员面临的情境风险:乘客、一天中的时间以及一周中的日期对事故发生率的影响。

The situational risks of young drivers: the influence of passengers, time of day and day of week on accident rates.

作者信息

Doherty S T, Andrey J C, MacGregor C

机构信息

Department of Geography, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 1998 Jan;30(1):45-52. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(97)00060-2.

Abstract

This paper provides new insight into the situational risks of young drivers, especially in terms of the passenger effect. Two 1988 data bases from the Ontario Ministry of Transportation were used to estimate accident involvement rates by number of passengers, time of day and day of the week--first individually and then for all two-way combinations with the passenger variable. Accident data were derived from police reports for all accidents involving a fatality, personal injury or property damage exceeding $700. Estimates of exposure were based on the most up-to-date provincial travel survey available at the time of the study. Results indicate that the accident involvement rates of 16-19 year old drivers are higher than those of 20-24 and 25-59 year olds in all situations that were examined, but that they were disproportionately high on weekends, at nighttime and with passengers. The results of the passenger variable are particularly interesting because, unlike weekends and nighttime, the negative effect of passengers on overall accident rates was evident only for 16-19 year old drivers. This effect was quite pronounced for both sexes, with accident involvement rates being approximately twice as high with passengers as without. For 16-19 year olds, accident rates were also significantly higher for two or more passengers versus one passenger. The highest rates for this age group occurred with passengers at nighttime. Possible explanations for these patterns and policy implications are discussed.

摘要

本文对年轻驾驶员面临的情境风险提供了新的见解,尤其是在乘客效应方面。利用安大略省交通部1988年的两个数据库,按乘客数量、一天中的时间和一周中的日期来估计事故发生率——首先单独估计,然后对与乘客变量的所有双向组合进行估计。事故数据来自警方报告,涵盖所有涉及死亡、人身伤害或财产损失超过700美元的事故。暴露量估计基于研究时可获得的最新省级旅行调查。结果表明,在所有被研究的情况下,16至19岁驾驶员的事故发生率高于20至24岁以及25至59岁的驾驶员,但在周末、夜间以及有乘客的情况下,他们的事故发生率过高的比例失调。乘客变量的结果尤其有趣,因为与周末和夜间不同,乘客对总体事故率的负面影响仅在16至19岁驾驶员中明显。这种影响在男女两性中都相当显著,有乘客时的事故发生率大约是没有乘客时的两倍。对于16至19岁的驾驶员,有两名或更多乘客时的事故率也显著高于有一名乘客时。这个年龄组的最高事故率出现在夜间有乘客的情况下。文中讨论了这些模式的可能解释及政策含义。

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