Braver E R, Trempel R E
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, Arlington, Virginia 22201, USA.
Inj Prev. 2004 Feb;10(1):27-32. doi: 10.1136/ip.2003.002923.
With more older drivers on the road, public concern has been expressed about their impact on traffic safety. This study revisited the question of driver age in relation to the risks of older drivers and others sharing the road with them, including pedestrians, passengers in the same vehicle, and occupants of other vehicles.
Using United States federal data on fatal and non-fatal crashes, injury rates per driver were calculated for different types of road users. In addition, using data supplied by nine insurers, insurance claims per insured vehicle year were examined by driver age. The reference drivers were aged 30-59.
For fatal crashes, older drivers' major impact on road users other than themselves was an increase in death rates among their passengers, who also tended to be elderly and thus more vulnerable to injuries (rate ratio (RR) for drivers aged 75+ 2.52; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.39 to 2.66). For non-fatal crashes, drivers aged 75+ had a RR of 1.10 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.24) for involvement in collisions resulting in injuries to other passenger vehicles' occupants compared with 30-59 year old drivers. The oldest drivers (aged 85+) had significant increases in insurance claims for injuries to other road users in crashes in which they were deemed at fault (RR 1.8; 95% CI 1.71 to 1.89).
These findings suggest that the oldest drivers, a group with low average annual mileage, do pose some increased risks to occupants of other vehicles, and pose the most serious risks to themselves and their passengers.
随着道路上老年驾驶员数量的增加,公众对他们对交通安全的影响表示担忧。本研究重新审视了老年驾驶员以及与他们共享道路的其他人(包括行人、同一车辆中的乘客和其他车辆中的驾乘人员)的年龄与风险的关系问题。
利用美国联邦关于致命和非致命撞车事故的数据,计算了不同类型道路使用者的每驾驶员受伤率。此外,利用九家保险公司提供的数据,按驾驶员年龄检查了每投保车辆年的保险索赔情况。参考驾驶员年龄为30 - 59岁。
在致命撞车事故中,老年驾驶员对自身以外道路使用者的主要影响是其乘客死亡率的增加,这些乘客往往也是老年人,因此更容易受伤(75岁及以上驾驶员的率比(RR)为2.52;95%置信区间(CI)为2.39至2.66)。在非致命撞车事故中,与30 - 59岁的驾驶员相比,75岁及以上的驾驶员导致其他乘用车驾乘人员受伤的碰撞事故的RR为1.10(95%CI为0.98至1.24)。年龄最大的驾驶员(85岁及以上)在被认定有过错的撞车事故中,对其他道路使用者造成伤害的保险索赔显著增加(RR为1.8;95%CI为1.71至1.89)。
这些发现表明,年龄最大的驾驶员这一平均年行驶里程较低的群体,确实给其他车辆的驾乘人员带来了一些增加的风险,并且给自己和乘客带来了最严重的风险。