Leino E V, Romelsjö A, Shoemaker C, Ager C R, Allebeck P, Ferrer H P, Fillmore K M, Golding J M, Graves K L, Kniep S
Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, University of California, San Francisco 94143-0646, USA.
Addiction. 1998 Feb;93(2):205-18. doi: 10.1046/j.1360-0443.1998.9322055.x.
This is the second of a set of three papers evaluating drinking status and mortality risk. Analysis of eight general population surveys of men evaluated all-cause mortality rates by drinking pattern.
Raw data from three studies of youth and five studies of adults were evaluated. Logistic regression models controlled for confounding characteristics. Meta-analysis combined study results.
Drinking pattern was alternatively defined by quantity, frequency and volume of drinking. Final models included drinking pattern (as well as abstinence in the youth models and long-term abstainers and former drinkers in adult models), age and other confounding variables. Models also evaluated interactions of age and, respectively, long-term abstinence and former drinking.
No evidence was found for the hypothesis that abstinence is associated with greater mortality risk than light drinking. In the youth samples, abstainers had a lower risk of dying than those drinking less than 15 times per month. One study of the adult samples showed a significant age by former drinker interaction; this did not alter the lack of association of former drinking with mortality risk or the homogeneity of results across studies for this finding. The most consistent finding was the association of heavy drinking with mortality among youth. Among adults, drinking 43 or more drinks per month and drinking 21 or more times per month were associated with increased mortality risk. Quantity per occasion was not significantly associated with mortality risk among adults.
That frequent drinking was related to mortality risk, whereas heavier quantity was unrelated, is inconsistent with the belief that daily consumption of a few glasses of wine has salutary effects. Empirically, however, this pattern tends to be unusual. Findings were homogeneous across studies lending generalizability to results.
这是一组三篇评估饮酒状况和死亡风险的论文中的第二篇。对八项男性普通人群调查进行分析，按饮酒模式评估全因死亡率。
对来自三项青少年研究和五项成年人研究的原始数据进行评估。逻辑回归模型对混杂特征进行了控制。荟萃分析合并了研究结果。
饮酒模式可通过饮酒量、饮酒频率和饮酒总量来定义。最终模型包括饮酒模式（青少年模型中的戒酒情况以及成人模型中的长期戒酒者和既往饮酒者）、年龄和其他混杂变量。模型还分别评估了年龄与长期戒酒以及既往饮酒之间的相互作用。
未发现有证据支持戒酒比轻度饮酒有更高死亡风险这一假设。在青少年样本中，戒酒者的死亡风险低于每月饮酒少于15次的人。一项针对成人样本的研究显示，既往饮酒者与年龄之间存在显著的相互作用；但这并未改变既往饮酒与死亡风险之间缺乏关联这一情况，也未改变该研究结果在各研究中的同质性。最一致的发现是青少年中重度饮酒与死亡之间的关联。在成年人中，每月饮酒43杯或更多以及每月饮酒21次或更多与死亡风险增加相关。每次饮酒量与成年人的死亡风险无显著关联。
频繁饮酒与死亡风险相关，而饮酒量较大则与之无关，这与认为每日饮用几杯葡萄酒有益健康的观点不一致。然而，从经验来看，这种模式往往并不常见。各研究结果具有同质性，使研究结果具有普遍适用性。
