Tischendorf L, Thulke H H, Staubach C, Müller M S, Jeltsch F, Goretzki J, Selhorst T, Müller T, Schlüter H, Wissel C
Department of Ecological Modelling, Centre for Environmental Research Ltd., Leipzig, Germany.
Proc Biol Sci. 1998 May 22;265(1399):839-46. doi: 10.1098/rspb.1998.0368.
The large-scale immunization of European fox populations against rabies is currently under the microscope for reducing the considerable expenditure without putting public health at risk. Empirical knowledge is inadequate to interpret the lasting sporadic incidences and, therefore, to verify the final success of the immunization campaigns. By using a proven simulation model we show that rabies can persist on a very low level in the form of spatio-temporal moving infection clusters within a highly immunized fox population. We found further: (i) the existence of a threshold after which the chance of eradicating the disease by vaccination increases clearly, and (ii) that at least six years of 70% mean immunization rate are required to guarantee a likely success.
欧洲狐狸群体针对狂犬病的大规模免疫接种目前正受到审视，目的是在不危及公众健康的前提下减少可观的开支。实证知识不足以解释持续存在的零星发病情况，因此也无法验证免疫接种运动的最终成效。通过使用一个经过验证的模拟模型，我们表明，在高度免疫的狐狸群体中，狂犬病能够以时空移动感染簇的形式在极低水平上持续存在。我们还发现：（i）存在一个阈值，超过该阈值后通过疫苗接种根除疾病的可能性会显著增加；（ii）至少需要六年平均免疫率达到70%才能确保有可能取得成功。
