Hinman A R
Vaccine. 1998 Jul;16(11-12):1116-21. doi: 10.1016/s0264-410x(98)80107-2.
There is both good news and bad news concerning infectious disease control globally. The good news is that smallpox has been eradicated, eradication of poliomyelitis and guinea worm disease is on track, and many infectious diseases are under effective control in much of the world. The advances are primarily the result of improved sanitation, effective use of vaccines, and introduction and use of specific therapies (whose impact has primarily been on mortality, rather than incidence). The bad news is that infectious diseases are still the leading cause of death world-wide, new diseases are emerging, old diseases are re-emerging, there are ominous interactions between diseases, and antibiotic resistance is emerging as a major problem. There are many promising developments for the future, including new and improved vaccines, new specific therapies, and new strategies to deal with infectious disease. However, unless eradicated, infectious diseases remain a threat and require continuous efforts to be kept under control. Given the ability of infectious agents to evolve, it is certain that the future will also hold new problems and new diseases.
全球传染病控制方面既有好消息也有坏消息。好消息是天花已被根除，脊髓灰质炎和麦地那龙线虫病的根除工作正在按计划进行，而且世界上许多地区的多种传染病都得到了有效控制。这些进展主要归功于卫生条件的改善、疫苗的有效使用以及特定疗法的引入和应用（其影响主要体现在死亡率而非发病率上）。坏消息是，传染病仍是全球主要死因，新疾病不断出现，旧疾病死灰复燃，疾病之间存在不祥的相互作用，而且抗生素耐药性正成为一个重大问题。未来有许多令人鼓舞的发展，包括新的和改进的疫苗、新的特定疗法以及应对传染病的新策略。然而，除非根除，传染病仍然是一种威胁，需要持续努力加以控制。鉴于传染病原体的进化能力，未来肯定还会出现新问题和新疾病。
