Schuckit M A
Department of Psychiatry, Veterans Affairs Medical Center, University of California, San Diego, 92161-2002, USA.
J Stud Alcohol. 1998 Sep;59(5):485-94. doi: 10.15288/jsa.1998.59.485.
This article reviews results from an ongoing prospective study of 453 sons of alcoholics and controls, and presents new data from the 15-year follow-up.
Drinking, but not alcohol dependent, 20-year-old sons of alcoholics and controls were evaluated for their level of response (LR) to alcohol and were subsequently followed, through personal interviews, 10 years and 15 years later.
The 10-year follow-up of 450 (99.3%) men and provisional analyses from the first 127 subjects at 15 years revealed that a low LR at about age 20 predicted subsequent alcoholism, even after considering the original quantity and frequency of drinking and six additional domains of influence. Regarding the latter, behavioral undercontrol and work stress appear to interact with LR, with alcohol expectancies, coping mechanisms and aspects of the drinking in the environment also appearing to add to the model, while other aspects of life stress and the social support network do not.
The prospective evaluation of subjects at higher risk for alcoholism is a potentially powerful tool in identifying the relationships among a broad range of moderators and mediators of the alcoholism risk. The present tentative results based on the first 127 subjects are primarily heuristic as findings might change in the full sample. These data set the stage for completion of the 15-year follow-up and for a subsequent 20-year evaluation which will focus on the same domains in the projected almost 560 sons and daughters of the original sample.
本文回顾了一项正在进行的对453名酗酒者之子及对照组进行的前瞻性研究结果，并展示了15年随访的新数据。
对20岁的酗酒者之子及对照组进行评估，这些人饮酒但未达到酒精依赖程度，评估他们对酒精的反应水平（LR），随后在10年和15年后通过个人访谈进行随访。
对450名（99.3%）男性进行的10年随访以及对最初127名受试者15年的初步分析显示，即使在考虑了最初的饮酒量和频率以及其他六个影响因素后，20岁左右较低的LR仍可预测随后的酗酒情况。关于后者，行为控制不足和工作压力似乎与LR相互作用，饮酒期望、应对机制以及环境中的饮酒方面似乎也对模型有补充作用，而生活压力的其他方面和社会支持网络则没有。
对酗酒风险较高的受试者进行前瞻性评估是识别酗酒风险的广泛调节因素和中介因素之间关系的潜在有力工具。基于最初127名受试者的目前初步结果主要具有启发性，因为在完整样本中结果可能会有所变化。这些数据为完成15年随访以及随后的20年评估奠定了基础，后续评估将聚焦于原样本中预计近560名子女的相同领域。
