[Accuracy of three methods of height prediction in a group of variant short stature children].

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to determine how accurately three methods of height prediction estimate adult height in a group of 27 boys and 16 girls with untreated short stature who have reached adult height. Twenty of the patients were considered to have familial short stature, 8 constitutional delay of growth and puberty, 12 a combination of both conditions and 3 idiopathic short stature.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Height predictions at various chronological ages were retrospectively compared to final adult height according to the Tanner-Whitehouse Mark I, Bayley-Pinneau and Roche-Wainer-Thisen methods. Heights were expressed as centimeters and standard deviation scores (SDS) and related to Tanner standardized curves.

RESULTS

The final heights reached were significantly below the target height [-2.0 (0.5) SDS versus -1.6 (0.6), p < 0.01]. The three methods over-estimated adult height. The Bayley-Pinneau method was especially accurate in girls and in familial short stature. The Tanner and Bayley-Pinneau predictions were similar in constitutional delay of growth and puberty. The Roche method gave the greatest errors in all groups.

CONCLUSIONS

1. Thee groups of normal variant short stature patients reached an adult height in the lower normal range. 2) The three method of height prediction over-estimated final height. 3) As in some pathological conditions, the Bayley-Pinneau was the most reliable method of height prediction in children with short stature. 4) These children may be considered as a historical group to evaluate the effect of growth-promoting therapies.