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多准则决策中“分而治之”原则的心理测量分析

A Psychometric Analysis of the "Divide and Conquer" Principle in Multicriteria Decision Making.

作者信息

Morera OF, Budescu DV

机构信息

Survey Research Laboratory, University of Illinois, Chicago

出版信息

Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 1998 Sep;75(3):187-206. doi: 10.1006/obhd.1998.2791.

DOI:10.1006/obhd.1998.2791
PMID:9740766
Abstract

The principle of "Divide and Conquer" (DAC) suggests that: (1) complex decision problems should be decomposed into smaller, more manageable parts and (2) these smaller parts should be logically aggregated to derive an overall value for each alternative. Typically, decompositional procedures have been compared to holistic evaluations that require decision makers to simultaneously consider all of the relevant attributes in the evaluation of the objects under consideration. These comparisons between decompositional and holistic judgments have primarily used a variant of Multiattribute Utility Theory (MAUT). We presented a general experimental framework that allows for a more extensive assessment of the DAC principle, as well as the effects of decision complexity on both holistic and decompositional procedures. We illustrate this approach with a study that uses the Simple Multiattribute Rating Technique with Swing Weights (SMARTS; Edwards & Barron, 1994) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP; Saaty, 1980). We report data comparing the convergent validity (e.g the agreement between decompositional and holistic strategies) and the temporal stability for decompositional and holistic judgments on a variety of dependent measures. Decision complexity did not significantly affect the correspondence between decompositional and holistic judgments for both SMARTS and AHP judgments. Results from an ordinal measure of temporal stability indicated the DAC principle was violated for the AHP judgments. For a linear measure of temporal stability, trends in the data indicated that the predicted effects of decision complexity on the DAC principle was violated for the SMARTS judgments. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

摘要

“分而治之”(DAC)原则表明:(1)复杂的决策问题应分解为更小、更易于管理的部分;(2)这些较小的部分应进行逻辑汇总,以得出每个备选方案的总体价值。通常,分解程序已与整体评估进行比较,整体评估要求决策者在评估所考虑的对象时同时考虑所有相关属性。分解判断与整体判断之间的这些比较主要采用了多属性效用理论(MAUT)的一种变体。我们提出了一个通用的实验框架,该框架允许对DAC原则以及决策复杂性对整体和分解程序的影响进行更广泛的评估。我们通过一项研究来说明这种方法,该研究使用了带有摆动权重的简单多属性评级技术(SMARTS;爱德华兹和巴伦,1994年)和层次分析法(AHP;萨蒂,1980年)。我们报告了在各种相关指标上比较分解判断与整体判断的收敛效度(例如,分解策略与整体策略之间的一致性)以及时间稳定性的数据。决策复杂性对SMARTS和AHP判断的分解判断与整体判断之间的对应关系没有显著影响。时间稳定性的序数测量结果表明,AHP判断违反了DAC原则。对于时间稳定性的线性测量,数据趋势表明,SMARTS判断违反了决策复杂性对DAC原则的预期影响。版权所有1998年学术出版社。

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