[日地物理因素与航空事故]

[Heliogeophysical factors and aviation accidents].

作者信息

Komarov F I, Oraevskiĭ V N, Sizov Iu P, Tsirul'nik L B, Kanonidi Kh D, Ushakov I B, Shalimov P M, Kimlyk M V, Glukhov D V

机构信息

Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Waves Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow Region, Russia.

出版信息

Biofizika. 1998 Jul-Aug;43(4):742-5.

PMID:9783079

Abstract

It was shown by two independent methods that there is a certain correlation between the number of aviation accidents and heliogeophysical factors. The statistical and spectral analyses of time series of heliogeomagnetic factors and the number of aviation accidents in 1989-1995 showed that, of 216 accidents, 58% are related to sudden geomagnetic storms. A similar relation was revealed for aviation catastrophes (64% out of 86 accidents) and emergencies (54% out of 130 accidents) that coincided in time with heliogeomagnetic storms. General periodicities of the series were revealed by the method of spectral analysis, namely, cycles of 30, 42, 46, 64, 74, 83, 99, 115, 143, 169, 339 days, which confirms the causative relation between the number of aviation accidents and heliogeomagnetic factors. It is assumed that some aviation accidents that coincided in time with geomagnetic storms, are due to changes in professional abilities of pilots that were in the zone of storms.

摘要

两种独立方法表明，航空事故数量与日地物理因素之间存在一定关联。对1989 - 1995年日地磁场因素和航空事故数量的时间序列进行统计和频谱分析表明，在216起事故中，58%与突发性地磁风暴有关。对于与日地磁场风暴同时发生的航空灾难（86起事故中的64%）和紧急情况（130起事故中的54%），也发现了类似的关系。通过频谱分析方法揭示了该序列的一般周期性，即30、42、46、64、74、83、99、115、143、169、339天的周期，这证实了航空事故数量与日地磁场因素之间的因果关系。据推测，一些与地磁风暴同时发生的航空事故，是由于处于风暴区域的飞行员专业能力发生了变化。