Szwarcwald C L, de Castilho E A
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Departamento de Informações para a Saúde, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Rev Panam Salud Publica. 1998 Sep;4(3):161-70. doi: 10.1590/s1020-49891998000900003.
Mortality caused by firearms has been increasing at an alarming rate in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This study analyzes the gradual evolution of firearm mortality rates in this Brazilian state from 1979 to 1992, according to sex, age, and area of residence (capital city, metropolitan area, or the state's interior), and uses spatial statistical techniques to describe the propagation of this firearm mortality epidemic in time and space. During the period analyzed, mortality due to firearms showed the greatest increase among 15- to 19-year-old male adolescents, with yearly rates ranging from 13 to 16%, according to area of residence. For children 10 to 14 years of age, mortality caused by firearms increased by 10% annually in the same period. The highest annual increase occurred in the state's interior. At the beginning of the period studied, dissemination of firearm mortality was observed to follow a definite direction parallel to the federal road that runs along the east coast of the state. Between 1990 and 1992, however, the increase in deaths by firearms spread out in practically every direction. Empirical confirmation of a general expansion of firearm wound mortality contradicts the usual claim that violence is concentrated in areas of extreme poverty within Brazil's largest cities. Programs for prevention and control of this epidemic should focus on its various aspects and take into consideration both collective issues (such as proliferation of firearms among persons involved with international firearm smuggling, increases in criminal activity, expansion of drug trafficking, and exclusion from social opportunities) and personal issues (relationships and interaction of young people with their families, schools, and social environment).
在巴西里约热内卢州，枪支造成的死亡率一直以惊人的速度上升。本研究分析了1979年至1992年该巴西州枪支死亡率按性别、年龄和居住地区（首府城市、大都市区或该州内陆）的逐步演变情况，并使用空间统计技术来描述这种枪支死亡率流行病在时间和空间上的传播。在分析期间，枪支造成的死亡率在15至19岁男性青少年中上升幅度最大，根据居住地区不同，年增长率在13%至16%之间。对于10至14岁的儿童，同期枪支造成的死亡率每年上升10%。年增长率最高的是该州内陆地区。在研究期开始时，观察到枪支死亡率的传播沿该州东海岸平行的一条联邦公路呈特定方向。然而，在1990年至1992年期间，枪支死亡人数的增加几乎向各个方向扩散。枪支伤口死亡率普遍上升的实证证实与通常认为暴力集中在巴西最大城市极端贫困地区的说法相矛盾。预防和控制这种流行病的方案应关注其各个方面，并考虑到集体问题（如参与国际枪支走私者中枪支的扩散、犯罪活动的增加、贩毒的扩大以及被排除在社会机会之外）和个人问题（年轻人与其家庭、学校和社会环境的关系及互动）。
