Knoke J D, Gray G C, Garland F C
Department of Health Sciences and Epidemiology, Naval Health Research Center, San Diego, CA 92186, USA.
Epidemiology. 1998 Nov;9(6):648-53.
We studied whether regular, active-duty servicemen deployed to the Persian Gulf War were at increased risk of testicular cancer compared with nondeployed Gulf War-era servicemen from August 1991 through March 31, 1996, using a Cox proportional hazards model for survival analysis with covariates. Race was an important predictor of hospitalization for testicular cancer [rate ratio (RR) = 0.19; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12-0.29 for blacks, and RR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.39-0.91 for Hispanics, other, and unknown (combined), relative to whites]. Age effects were modest (RR = 1.19; 95% CI = 0.91-1.56 for those of ages 22-25 years, and RR = 1.24; 95% CI = 0.96-1.59 for those of ages 26-31 years, compared with those of ages 17-21 years). Risk also varied with occupation (RR = 1.56; 95% CI = 1.23-2.00 for those in electronic equipment repair; RR = 1.26; 95% CI = 1.01-1.58 for those in electrical/mechanical repair; and RR = 1.42; 95% CI = 0.93-2.17 for those in construction-related trades, compared with those in other occupations). Deployment status was not important (RR = 1.05; 95% CI = 0.86-1.29 for the deployed compared with the nondeployed). There was an increase in testicular cancer in the deployed group in the immediate postwar period that was consistent with a previous report of a standardized RR of 2.12; 95% CI = 1.11-4.02 (compared with the nondeployed group) in the last 5 months of 1991, but by 4 years after the end of deployment, the cumulative risks for the two groups were not different. An additional analysis suggested that the immediate postwar increase in the deployed was likely due to regression to the mean after a healthy serviceman selection effect for deployment and the deferment of care during deployment.
我们研究了从1991年8月至1996年3月31日,与未被部署到海湾战争的军人相比,被部署到波斯湾战争的现役军人患睾丸癌的风险是否增加,我们使用Cox比例风险模型进行生存分析,并纳入协变量。种族是睾丸癌住院治疗的一个重要预测因素[黑人的发病率比(RR)=0.19;95%置信区间(CI)=0.12 - 0.29,西班牙裔、其他种族和未知种族(合并)相对于白人的RR = 0.59;95% CI = 0.39 - 0.91]。年龄影响较小(与17 - 21岁的人相比,22 - 25岁的人的RR = 1.19;95% CI = 0.91 - 1.56,26 - 31岁的人的RR = 1.24;95% CI = 0.96 - 1.59)。风险也因职业而异(与其他职业的人相比,电子设备维修人员的RR = 1.56;95% CI = 1.23 - 2.00;电气/机械维修人员的RR = 1.26;95% CI = 1.01 - 1.58;建筑相关行业人员的RR = 1.42;95% CI = 0.93 - 2.17)。部署状态并不重要(与未被部署的人相比,被部署的人的RR = 1.05;95% CI = 0.86 - 1.29)。在战后初期,被部署组的睾丸癌发病率有所上升,这与之前一份报告一致,该报告显示在1991年最后5个月标准化RR为2.12;95% CI = 1.11 - 4.02(与未被部署组相比),但到部署结束4年后,两组的累积风险没有差异。另一项分析表明,战后初期被部署组发病率的上升可能是由于在部署时对健康军人的选择效应以及部署期间推迟治疗后向均值回归所致。