van Gerwen S J, Zwietering M H
Wageningen Agricultural University, Department of Food Technology and Nutritional Sciences, The Netherlands.
J Food Prot. 1998 Nov;61(11):1541-9. doi: 10.4315/0362-028x-61.11.1541.
In past years many models describing growth and inactivation of microorganisms have been developed. This study is a discussion of the growth and inactivation models that can be used in a stepwise procedure for quantitative risk assessment. First, rough risk assessments are performed in which orders of magnitude for microbial processes are estimated by the use of simple models. This method provides an efficient way to find the main determinants of risk. Second, the main determinants of risk are studied more accurately and quantitatively. It is best to compare several models at this level, as no model is expected to be able accurately to predict microbial responses under all circumstances. By comparing various models the main determinants of risk are studied from several points of view, and risks can be assessed on a broad basis. If, however, process variations have a more profound effect on risk than the differences between models, it is most efficient to use the simplest model available. If relevant, the process variations can be stochastically described in the third level of detail. Stochastic description of the process parameters will however not change the conclusion on the usefulness of simple models in quantitative risk assessments. The proposed stepwise procedure that starts simply before going into detail provides a structured method of risk assessment and prevents the researcher from getting caught in too much complexity. This simplicity is necessary because of the complex nature of food safety. The principal aspects are highlighted during the procedure and many factors can be omitted since their quantitative effect is negligible.
在过去的几年里，已经开发出了许多描述微生物生长和失活的模型。本研究讨论了可用于逐步进行定量风险评估的生长和失活模型。首先，进行粗略的风险评估，通过使用简单模型来估计微生物过程的数量级。这种方法提供了一种有效的方式来找出风险的主要决定因素。其次，更准确和定量地研究风险的主要决定因素。最好在这个层面比较几种模型，因为没有一种模型有望在所有情况下都能准确预测微生物的反应。通过比较各种模型，从多个角度研究风险的主要决定因素，并能在广泛的基础上评估风险。然而，如果过程变化对风险的影响比模型之间的差异更深远，那么使用现有的最简单模型是最有效的。如果相关，可以在第三个详细程度级别对过程变化进行随机描述。然而，对过程参数的随机描述不会改变简单模型在定量风险评估中的有用性结论。所提出的从简单开始再深入细节的逐步程序提供了一种结构化的风险评估方法，并防止研究人员陷入过多的复杂性之中。由于食品安全的复杂性质，这种简单性是必要的。在这个过程中突出了主要方面，许多因素可以省略，因为它们的定量影响可以忽略不计。
