Williams H C, Strachan D P
Department of Dermatology, Queen's Medical Centre, Nottingham NG7 2UH,
Br J Dermatol. 1998 Nov;139(5):834-9. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2133.1998.02509.x.
The National Child Development Study (NCDS) is a birth cohort study whose longitudinal design makes it suitable for examining the natural history of common diseases in childhood such as atopic eczema. We have analysed the age of onset and clearance rates for examined and/or reported eczema in 6877 children born during the period 3-9 March 1958 for whom linked data were available at birth and at the ages of 7, 11, 16 and 23 years. Of the 870 cases with examined or reported eczema by the age of 16 years, 66% had age of onset by the age of 7 years. Of the 571 children with reported or examined eczema by the age of 7 years, the proportion of children who were clear in terms of examined eczema or reported eczema in the last year at ages 11 and 16 years was 65% and 74%, respectively. These 'apparent' or short-term clearance rates fell to 53% and 65%, respectively, after allowance for subsequent recurrences in adolescence and early adulthood. Age of onset of community-ascertained cases of atopic eczema may be later than that reported in hospital-based studies. The long-term prognosis of childhood eczema may be worse than some previous studies have suggested, especially when subsequent recurrences are taken into account.
全国儿童发展研究（NCDS）是一项出生队列研究，其纵向设计使其适合于研究儿童常见疾病（如特应性皮炎）的自然史。我们分析了1958年3月3日至9日期间出生的6877名儿童中经检查和/或报告的湿疹的发病年龄和清除率，这些儿童在出生时以及7岁、11岁、16岁和23岁时都有相关数据。在16岁前经检查或报告患有湿疹的870例病例中，66%在7岁前发病。在7岁前经报告或检查患有湿疹的571名儿童中，在11岁和16岁时，经检查的湿疹或报告的湿疹在过去一年中已清除的儿童比例分别为65%和74%。在考虑到青春期和成年早期随后的复发情况后，这些“明显的”或短期清除率分别降至53%和65%。社区确诊的特应性皮炎病例的发病年龄可能比基于医院的研究所报告的要晚。儿童湿疹的长期预后可能比以前的一些研究所表明的更差，尤其是在考虑到随后的复发情况时。
