Leaper D J
Br J Surg. 1976 Oct;63(10):759-62. doi: 10.1002/bjs.1800631008.
Selection of patients with disseminated breast cancer for endocrine surgery has not been facilitated by sophisticated biochemical techniques. The present study was designed to produce a method of prognosis based exclusively on clinical data. Eighteen features were studied in 95 patients who underwent adrenalectomy and oophorectomy, and correlated with their degree of response to produce predictive variables. In a further group of 90 patients a prognostic score (the sum of the predictive variables) was calculated. There were 17 patients who scored less than 0 and in no case was a good response to endocrine surgery achieved. There were 40 who scored over 10, 29 of whom had a good response. The remaining 33 scored between 0 and 10 and there was no correlation between score and response. This predictive system offers significant advantages over accepted methods of clinical assessment (chi2 = 6-61, P less than 0-02). When patients with a score between 0 and 10 are excluded, its advantages are even more obvious (chi2 = 11-26, P less than 0-001). Patients who are likely to respond to endocrine surgery can be selected by clinical parameters alone, and total failure to respond can be forecast with complete accuracy. Between these two there is a third group whose response is unpredictable.
复杂的生化技术并不能帮助筛选出适合内分泌手术的转移性乳腺癌患者。本研究旨在建立一种仅基于临床数据的预后评估方法。对95例行肾上腺切除术和卵巢切除术的患者的18项特征进行了研究,并将其与反应程度相关联以生成预测变量。在另外一组90例患者中计算了预后评分(预测变量之和)。有17例患者评分低于0,无一例对内分泌手术有良好反应。有40例评分超过10,其中29例有良好反应。其余33例评分在0至10之间,评分与反应之间无相关性。该预测系统比公认的临床评估方法具有显著优势(卡方=6.61,P<0.02)。排除评分在0至10之间的患者后,其优势更加明显(卡方=11.26,P<0.001)。仅通过临床参数就可以筛选出可能对内分泌手术有反应的患者,并且可以完全准确地预测无反应的情况。在这两者之间还有第三组患者,其反应无法预测。