Horst H S, Dijkhuizen A A, Huirne R B, Meuwissen M P
Department of Economics and Management, Wageningen Agricultural University, The Netherlands.
Prev Vet Med. 1999 Jul 20;41(2-3):209-29. doi: 10.1016/s0167-5877(99)00038-0.
In order to improve the understanding of the risk of introducing classical swine fever (CSF) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the Netherlands, a Monte Carlo simulation model was developed. The model, VIRiS (Virus Introduction Risk Simulation model) describes virus introduction into the Netherlands from outbreaks in other European countries. VIRiS is aimed at supporting decision makers involved in disease prevention. The model is based on historical and experimental data, supplemented with expert judgement, and provides the expected number, location and cause of primary outbreaks in the Netherlands. The paper gives a detailed description of the design and behaviour of VIRiS. The default outcomes of VIRiS show that in the current situation, the western and northern regions of the Netherlands are most prone to outbreaks of CSF and FMD. Most outbreaks originate from the countries neighbouring the Netherlands and the countries of southern Europe. Several alternative prevention strategies were evaluated using a combination of the VIRiS model and models describing the spread and economic consequences of outbreaks. A considerable financial window is available for measures aimed at speeding up the detection of epidemics in countries from which a Dutch outbreak may originate. Complete elimination of the risk associated with the risk factor 'returning trucks' reduces the annual losses due to FMD and CSF epidemics by approximately US$ 9 million. The approach is general and could also be applied to other diseases and countries.
为提高对荷兰引入经典猪瘟（CSF）和口蹄疫（FMD）风险的认识，开发了一个蒙特卡洛模拟模型。该模型VIRiS（病毒引入风险模拟模型）描述了病毒从其他欧洲国家的疫情传入荷兰的情况。VIRiS旨在支持参与疾病预防的决策者。该模型基于历史和实验数据，并辅以专家判断，可提供荷兰初次疫情的预期数量、地点和原因。本文详细描述了VIRiS的设计和运行情况。VIRiS的默认结果表明，在当前情况下，荷兰的西部和北部地区最容易发生CSF和FMD疫情。大多数疫情源自荷兰的邻国和南欧国家。结合使用VIRiS模型以及描述疫情传播和经济后果的模型，对几种替代性预防策略进行了评估。对于旨在加快对荷兰可能爆发疫情的源头国家疫情检测的措施，有相当可观的资金空间。完全消除与“返程卡车”这一风险因素相关的风险，可使因FMD和CSF疫情造成的年度损失减少约900万美元。该方法具有通用性，也可应用于其他疾病和国家。
