De Vos C J, Saatkamp H W, Huirne R B M
Business Economics, Department of Social Sciences, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Prev Vet Med. 2005 Sep 12;70(3-4):235-56. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.04.001.
Recent history has demonstrated that classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics can incur high economic losses, especially for exporting countries that have densely populated pig areas and apply a strategy of non-vaccination, such as The Netherlands. Introduction of CSF virus (CSFV) remains a continuing threat to the pig production sector in The Netherlands. Reducing the annual probability of CSFV introduction (P(CSFV)) by preventive measures is therefore of utmost importance. The choice of preventive measures depends not only on the achieved reduction of the annual P(CSFV), but also on the expenditures required for implementing these measures. The objective of this study was to explore the cost-effectiveness of tactical measures aimed at the prevention of CSFV introduction into The Netherlands. For this purpose for each measure (i) model calculations were performed with a scenario tree model for CSFV introduction and (ii) its annual cost was estimated. The cost-effectiveness was then determined as the reduction of the annual P(CSFV) achieved by each preventive measure (DeltaP) divided by the annual cost of implementing that measure (DeltaC). The measures analysed reduce the P(CSFV) caused by import or export of pigs. Results showed that separation of national and international transport of pigs is the most cost-effective measure, especially when risk aversion is assumed. Although testing piglets and breeding pigs by a quick and reliable PCR also had a high cost-effectiveness ratio, this measure is not attractive due to the high cost per pig imported. Besides, implementing such a measure is not allowed under current EU law, as it is trade restrictive.
近期历史表明，经典猪瘟（CSF）疫情会造成巨大经济损失，对于那些猪养殖密集地区且采取非疫苗接种策略的出口国家而言更是如此，比如荷兰。猪瘟病毒（CSFV）的传入对荷兰的生猪生产部门依然构成持续威胁。因此，通过预防措施降低CSFV每年传入的概率（P(CSFV)）至关重要。预防措施的选择不仅取决于每年P(CSFV)的降低程度，还取决于实施这些措施所需的费用。本研究的目的是探讨旨在预防CSFV传入荷兰的战术措施的成本效益。为此，针对每项措施：（i）使用CSFV传入的情景树模型进行模型计算；（ii）估算其年度成本。然后将成本效益确定为每项预防措施实现的每年P(CSFV)的降低值（ΔP）除以实施该措施的年度成本（ΔC）。所分析的措施降低了因生猪进出口导致的P(CSFV)。结果表明，将国内和国际生猪运输分开是最具成本效益的措施，尤其是在假设风险规避的情况下。尽管通过快速可靠的聚合酶链反应（PCR）检测仔猪和种猪也具有很高的成本效益比，但由于每头进口猪的成本高昂，该措施并不具有吸引力。此外，根据现行欧盟法律，实施这样的措施是不允许的，因为它具有贸易限制性质。
