de Vos Clazien J, Saatkamp Helmut W, Nielen Mirjam, Huirne Ruud B M
Farm Management Group, Department of Social Sciences, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Risk Anal. 2004 Feb;24(1):237-53. doi: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00426.x.
The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction.
在一个未接种疫苗且无经典猪瘟病毒（CSFV）的国家引入该病毒，在疾病传播和经济损失方面可能会产生巨大影响。为了优化用于预防CSFV引入的资源，需要对决定CSFV引入概率（PCSFV）的主要因素有更定量的了解。为此构建了一个电子表格模型，用于计算进入欧盟（EU）成员国的年度PCSFV。由于模型中的大多数概率非常小，因此使用了情景路径方法。使用概率分布来考虑输入参数的固有变异性。该模型包含CSFV引入的途径，包括猪和猪肉产品的进口、返回的运畜卡车以及与野猪的接触。所有欧盟成员国都被视为CSFV的可能来源。荷兰的默认结果显示，年度PCSFV的总体平均值约为0.06，这表明从模型中包含的途径和国家来看，荷兰平均每18年可能会引入一次CSFV。该概率的近65%可归因于返回的运畜卡车途径。最有可能引入CSFV的来源是德国、比利时和英国。尽管与专家估计和近期历史相比，计算出的概率相当低，但该模型指出的CSFV引入的最可能原因被认为是现实的。因此得出结论，该模型是一个有用的工具，可用于构建和分析有关预防CSFV引入的决策信息。
