Mather D, Crofts N
School of Business Systems, Monash University, Victoria, Australia.
Eur J Epidemiol. 1999 Jan;15(1):5-10. doi: 10.1023/a:1007548307196.
A number of behavioural and clinical parameters influence the transmission of an infectious agent through direct contact between two individuals. The behavioural parameters encountered in such situations are also likely to exhibit an enormous amount of variability. With the spread of hepatitis C among injecting drug users, the parameters associated with injecting behaviour play an important role in the modelling of the transmission process. Computer simulation modelling is an ideal approach to deal with a large number of parameters as well as high levels of variability without excessive simplification. The simulation model presented in this paper is tested on data from a cohort of injecting drug users and the results obtained are very encouraging from a public health perspective. The model clearly indicates that the rate at which HCV spreads through a population of injecting drug users is extremely sensitive to the interaction rate and to the probability of infection through a single contact with an infective. At the same time it shows that rate of spread is not very sensitive to initial prevalence, which is very encouraging from a public health perspective.
许多行为和临床参数会影响传染病原体在两个人之间通过直接接触进行传播。在这种情况下遇到的行为参数也可能表现出极大的变异性。随着丙型肝炎在注射吸毒者中的传播，与注射行为相关的参数在传播过程建模中起着重要作用。计算机模拟建模是处理大量参数以及高度变异性而不过度简化的理想方法。本文提出的模拟模型在一组注射吸毒者的数据上进行了测试，从公共卫生角度来看，所获得的结果非常令人鼓舞。该模型清楚地表明，丙型肝炎病毒在注射吸毒者群体中的传播速度对相互作用率以及单次接触感染者的感染概率极为敏感。同时表明传播速度对初始患病率不太敏感，从公共卫生角度来看这非常令人鼓舞。
