《中国厦门市丙型肝炎病毒传播性的建模研究》。
The transmissibility of hepatitis C virus: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China.
机构信息
State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen361102, People's Republic of China.
Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen361021, People's Republic of China.
出版信息
Epidemiol Infect. 2020 Nov 25;148:e291. doi: 10.1017/S0950268820002885.
This study aimed at estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C. The data for hepatitis C cases were collected in six districts in Xiamen City, China from 2004 to 2018. A population-mixed susceptible-infectious-chronic-recovered (SICR) model was used to fit the data and the parameters of the model were calculated. The basic reproduction number (R0) and the number of newly transmitted cases by a primary case per month (MNI) were adopted to quantitatively assess the transmissibility of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Eleven curve estimation models were employed to predict the trends of R0 and MNI in the city. The SICR model fits the reported HCV data well (P < 0.01). The median R0 of each district in Xiamen is 0.4059. R0 follows the cubic model curve, the compound curve and the power function curve. The median MNI of each district in Xiamen is 0.0020. MNI follows the cubic model curve, the compound curve and the power function curve. The transmissibility of HCV follows a decreasing trend, which reveals that under the current policy for prevention and control, there would be a high feasibility to eliminate the transmission of HCV in the city.
本研究旨在估计丙型肝炎的传染性。丙型肝炎病例数据来自中国厦门市六个区 2004 年至 2018 年的数据。采用人群混合易感-感染-慢性-恢复（SICR）模型来拟合数据，并计算模型的参数。基本繁殖数（R0）和每个原发性病例每月新传播的病例数（MNI）用于定量评估丙型肝炎病毒（HCV）的传染性。采用 11 种曲线估计模型预测该市 R0 和 MNI 的趋势。SICR 模型很好地拟合了报告的 HCV 数据（P < 0.01）。厦门各地区的中位数 R0 为 0.4059。R0 遵循三次模型曲线、复合曲线和幂函数曲线。厦门各地区的中位数 MNI 为 0.0020。MNI 遵循三次模型曲线、复合曲线和幂函数曲线。HCV 的传染性呈下降趋势，这表明在当前的防控政策下，该市消除 HCV 传播具有很高的可行性。
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