Glei D A
Department of Sociology, Princeton University, NJ, USA.
Fam Plann Perspect. 1999 Mar-Apr;31(2):73-80.
Measures of contraceptive use at one point in time do not account for its changing nature. A measure that addresses the pattern of method use over time may better predict the cumulative risk of unintended pregnancy.
Women at risk of unintended pregnancy were selected from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth, and their contraceptive use patterns were compared across age-groups. Survival analysis was used to validate women's long-term use pattern as an indicator of pregnancy risk, and multivariate regression analyses were used to explore potential covariates of current patterns of contraceptive use.
More than two-thirds of women aged 15-19 report long-term uninterrupted contraceptive use, but they are more likely to report sporadic use and less likely to report uninterrupted use of a very effective method than are women aged 25-34. Compared with women aged 25-34, women aged 20-24 have higher rates of sporadic use and lower rates of effective uninterrupted use. Among teenagers, nonusers are 12 times as likely as uninterrupted effective users to experience an unintended pregnancy within 12 months at risk. Women in less stable relationships, those having more infrequent intercourse and women who have recently experienced nonvoluntary intercourse for the first time are more likely than others to have a high-risk contraceptive pattern. Women aged 17 and younger whose current partner is more than three years older are significantly less likely to practice contraception than are their peers whose partner is closer in age.
Long-term contraceptive use pattern is a valid predictor of unintended pregnancy risk. Policies aimed at reducing unintended pregnancies should target women who do not practice contraception and those who are sporadic users. Women in unstable relationships, those having infrequent sex and women who experience sexual coercion need access to methods, such as emergency contraception, that can be used sporadically or after unprotected intercourse.
某一时刻的避孕措施使用情况并不能反映其不断变化的特性。一种能够反映随时间推移的方法使用模式的指标,可能会更好地预测意外怀孕的累积风险。
从1995年全国家庭生育调查中选取有意外怀孕风险的女性,并对不同年龄组的避孕使用模式进行比较。采用生存分析来验证女性的长期使用模式作为怀孕风险指标的有效性,并使用多元回归分析来探究当前避孕使用模式的潜在协变量。
超过三分之二的15 - 19岁女性报告长期不间断使用避孕措施,但与25 - 34岁的女性相比,她们更有可能报告偶尔使用避孕措施,且不太可能报告长期不间断使用非常有效的避孕方法。与25 - 34岁的女性相比,20 - 24岁的女性偶尔使用避孕措施的比例更高,长期有效不间断使用的比例更低。在青少年中,未使用者在12个月的危险期内意外怀孕的可能性是长期有效使用者的12倍。处于关系不太稳定、性交频率较低以及最近首次经历非自愿性交的女性,比其他女性更有可能拥有高风险的避孕模式。当前伴侣比自己大三岁以上的17岁及以下女性,比伴侣年龄相近的同龄人采取避孕措施的可能性显著更低。
长期避孕使用模式是意外怀孕风险的有效预测指标。旨在减少意外怀孕的政策应针对未采取避孕措施的女性和偶尔使用者。处于不稳定关系、性交频率低以及遭受性胁迫的女性需要获得如紧急避孕等可偶尔使用或在无保护性交后使用的方法。